Precipitation Variability and Adaptation Strategies in the Southern Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico: Integrating Local Knowledge with Quantitative Analysis

Márdero, Sofía; Schmook, Birgit; Christman, Zachary; Nickl, Elsa; Schneider, Laura; Rogan, John; Lawrence, Deborah

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-04489-7_13

Cited by 13 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Cessation occurs by the end of October, or the first week of November at Silvituc. These results coincide with other studies (i.e., Orellana et al 2009;Vidal-Zepeda 2005) and with local knowledge as reported by farmers (Mardero et al 2014). For example, the agricultural calendar for the maize crop in the area usually starts in late May or June, coincident with precipitation onset.…”

Section: Rainy Season Onset and Cessationsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Traditional knowledge from local farmers can provide further insights about climatic changes. Mardero et al (2014Mardero et al ( , 2015 highlight that farmers in Calakmul have perceived substantial changes in the climate over the last three decades. Farmers report that temperatures are increasing and emphasize that now, "it is raining differently," indicating delayed onset of the rainy season and noting a few intense precipitation events and even flooding, followed by weeks without rain events.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research on rainfall intensity and distribution is crucial both to create infrastructure to reduce risks associated with extreme flood events, and to Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico develop mechanisms to cope with the increasing drought events especially in economic sectors highly related to water availability such as agriculture. In Mexico, climate policy for the agricultural sector has focused on strategies boosting irrigation systems and the use of agricultural inputs such as modified seeds (more resistant to droughts), and farmers have been adapting their agricultural calendar to the changed rainfall patterns (Eakin 2005;Mardero et al 2014). Researchers working in the Calakmul Reserve (Carrillo-Reyna et al 2015;Martínez 2016;Pérez-Cortéz et al 2012) have also called for increased information on precipitation patterns due to the importance of water availability in the aguadas and their role in wildlife distribution.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous research by Mardero et al (2014) addressed how farmers in Calakmul have modified their agricultural calendar, reducing the area under maize cultivation, and diversified economic activities due to the effects of increasing precipitation variability and droughts. The schedule of agricultural activities is largely dictated by rainfall, beginning with land preparation (including crop selection and planting) and culminating with harvest and transport to market (Conde-Álvarez and Saldaña-Zorrilla 2007;FAO 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico

Márdero

Schmook

Christman

et al. 2019

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study addresses changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation from 1982 to 2016 from three meteorological stations around Calakmul, Mexico, a landscape balancing biodiversity conservation and smallholder agricultural production. Five methods were used to assess changes in precipitation: the Mann-Kendall test of annual and wet season trends; a fuzzy-logic approach to determine the onset of the rainy season; the Gini Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) to evaluate the temporal distribution of precipitation; Simple Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) to evaluate precipitation intensity; and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) to identify the deficit or surplus of rainfall compared with the long-term mean. Overall, rainfall trends in Calakmul over this period indicate a slight increase, though results of the indices (Gini, SDII, PCI) all indicate that rainfall has become more intense and more unevenly distributed throughout the year. There was no significant trend in the onset date of rainfall or the RAI overall, though there were more pronounced crests and troughs from 2004 to 2016. Higher interannual variability and more pronounced rainfall anomalies, both positive and negative, suggest that rainfall in the Calakmul region has become more extreme. This research informs for management and livelihood strategies in the local region and offers insights for analyses of regional patterns of seasonal precipitation events in tropical landscapes worldwide.

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Section: Rainy Season Onset and Cessationsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico

Márdero

Schmook

Christman

et al. 2019

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…), while rainfall during the dry season ranged from 0 mm/yr to 250 mm/yr, and exhibited an upward trend (approximately +2 mm/yr.) [33,34]. Márdero et al [33] observed a clear decrease in positive rainfall anomalies over this period around Zoh Laguna, including prolonged drought during the 1990s, near forests that exhibit a large interannual range of biophysical greenness, particularly with respect to observed annual minimum values [12].…”

Section: Study Area Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Cross-Scale Correlation between In Situ Measurements of Canopy Gap Fraction and Landsat-Derived Vegetation Indices with Implications for Monitoring the Seasonal Phenology in Tropical Forests Using MODIS Data

et al. 2018

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Deciduousness in dry tropical forests results in substantial seasonal changes to canopy gap fractions. The characterization of such structural properties over large areas is necessary for understanding energy and nutrient distribution within forest ecosystems. However, a spatial extrapolation of measurements from relatively few, spatially-concentrated field observations can yield estimated values that have questionable accuracy and precision at regional scales. This paper uses linear regression models to compare measurements of canopy gap fraction from in situ digital cover photography in the dry tropical forest of the Southern Yucatán, Mexico, to measurements of seasonal vegetation change based on three vegetation indices-the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)-derived from Landsat-7 ETM+ and Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data to gauge the ability of standardized combinations of multispectral reflectance data to accurately describe the intensity of deciduousness that occurs during the dry season. Discrete observations are compared, as well as spatially summarized values at coarser spatial scales. Model R 2 values are greater at coarse spatial scales for all vegetation indices. Models of in situ measurements of gap fraction and Landsat NDWI normalized seasonal change exhibit stronger correlation than do models that feature NDVI or EVI2 (R 2 = 0.751 and Mean Absolute Error = 0.04 after aggregation, R 2 = 0.552 and MAE = 0.07 for observation-level data). Based on its comparatively strong correlation with field observations, NDWI is adapted to a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series and used for spatial extrapolation and the monitoring of canopy conditions. NDWI values derived from MODIS data are regressed against Tropical Rainforest Measuring Misson (TRMM) rainfall data over the period 2000-2011, and the regression results are compared to those of a prior study that used regression to explain the variation of a MODIS EVI using TRMM rainfall data. A MODIS NDWI time series reveals stronger correlation (R 2 = 0.48 in deciduous forests) with TRMM accumulated (three-month) rainfall data than a MODIS EVI time series. The results indicate that an NDWI time series can accurately describe a variability of canopy leaf abundance during the dry season and could be an alternative basis of long-term monitoring of season phenology in a dry tropical forest.

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Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers

Kramer

Hackman

2020

American J Hum Biol

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Objectives: Human responses to climate variation have a rich anthropological history. However, much less is known about how people living in small-scale societies perceive climate change, and what climate data are useful in predicting food production at a scale that affects daily lives. Methods: We use longitudinal ethnographic interviews and economic data to first ask what aspects of climate variation affect the agricultural cycle and food production for Yucatec Maya farmers. Sixty years of high-resolution meteorological data and harvest assessments are then used to detect the scale at which climate data predict good and bad crop yields, and to analyze long-term changes in climate variables critical to food production.Results: We find that (a) only local, daily precipitation closely fits the climate pattern described by farmers. Other temporal (annual and monthly) scales miss key information about what farmers find important to successful harvests; (b) at both community-and municipal-levels, heavy late-season rains associated with tropical storms have the greatest negative impact on crop yields; and (c) in contrast to long-term patterns from regional and state data, local measures show an increase in rainfall during the late growing season, indicating that fine-grained data are needed to make accurate inferences about climate trends. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance to define climate variables at scales appropriate to human behavior. Course-grained annual, monthly, national, and state-level data tell us little about climate attributes pertinent to farmers and food production. However, high-resolution daily, local precipitation data do capture how climate variation shapes food production. | INTRODUCTIONHumans have been adapting to climate change since they can be identified in the archeological record, and have a broad array of strategies to manage seasonal and annual fluctuations in resource production. Behavioral responses to inconsistences in food availability are well-established in the anthropological and archeological literature as effective in buffering against food shortage under many circumstances. These responses are generally summarized as resource diversification, mobility, storage, and exchange through sharing and trade (Halstead & O'Shea, 1989

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Precipitation Variability and Adaptation Strategies in the Southern Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico: Integrating Local Knowledge with Quantitative Analysis

Cited by 13 publications

References 12 publications

Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico

Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico

Cross-Scale Correlation between In Situ Measurements of Canopy Gap Fraction and Landsat-Derived Vegetation Indices with Implications for Monitoring the Seasonal Phenology in Tropical Forests Using MODIS Data

Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers

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