Precolonial States and Development: Evidence from Agriculture in Africa

Abstract

Low agricultural productivity is a major source of poverty in Africa, where much of the population works in agriculture, yet subsistence production and food insecurity are widespread. However, some pockets of agriculture in Africa are highly productive. In this paper, we assemble a geospatial dataset of all pre-colonial African states in existence between 1500 and 1850, and utilize remote-sensing data based on satellite imagery to show that areas (pixels) in proximity to the location of pre-colonial state capitals display higher levels of contemporary agricultural output. This relationship exists across and within countries, agro-ecological zones, and river basins. We rule out spurious correlation with spatial randomization tests. We argue that via path-dependence and spatial agglomeration effects, pre-colonial states transmitted the territorial reach that was critical for state-led agricultural modernization in the twentieth century. The findings support a growing literature linking contemporary economic development to state capacity transmitted from pre-colonial political institutions.

Endogenous Colonial Borders: Precolonial States and Geography in the Partition of Africa

“…development (Dasgupta and Johnson-Kanu 2021;Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2013), civil war (Paine 2019;Wig 2016), and democracy (Baldwin 2016;Neupert-Wentz, Kromrey, and Bayer 2022). By showing that colonial borders largely preserved, rather than dismembered precolonial states, we can better account for their persistence in shaping colonial governance (indirect rule) and postcolonial outcomes.…”