Precursor-Based Earthquake Prediction Research: Proposal for a Paradigm-Shifting Strategy

Abstract

The article discusses the controversial topic of the precursor-based earthquake prediction, based on a personal perspective intending to stir the current still waters of the issue after twenty years have passed since the influential debate on earthquake prediction hosted by Nature in 1999. The article challenges the currently dominant pessimistic view on precursor-based earthquake prediction resting on the “impossible in principle” paradigm. Instead, it suggests that a concept-based innovative research strategy is the key to obtain significant results, i.e., a possible paradigm shift, in this domain. The basic concept underlying such a possible strategy is the “precursory fingerprint” of individual seismic structures derived from the uniqueness of the structures themselves. The aim is to find as many unique fingerprints as possible for different seismic structures worldwide, covering all earthquake typologies. To achieve this, a multiparameter approach involving all possible sensor types (physical, chemical, and biological) of the highest available sensitivity and artificial intelligence could be used. The findings would then be extrapolated to other similar structures. One key issue is the emplacement location of the sensor array in privileged “sensitive” Earth surface sites (such as volcanic conduits) where the signal-to-noise ratio is maximized, as suggested in the article. The strategy envisages three stages: experimental phase, validation, and implementation. It inherently could be a costly, multidisciplinary, international, and long-term (i.e., multidecade) endeavor with no guaranteed success, but less adventurous and societally more significant to the currently running and well-funded SETI Project.

Subduction as a Smoothing Machine: How Multiscale Dissipation Relates Precursor Signals to Fault Geometry

“…This gap in our understanding has generated concerns and skepticism within the seismological community, as the reliability and predictive capabilities of pre-earthquake measurements are called into question [37,38]. This skepticism has made it challenging to overcome the prevailing paradigm that denies the existence of pre-earthquake phenomena [39]. To bridge this gap, considerable attention has been directed toward experiments conducted on rock samples, offering valuable insights into the behavior of pre-failure physics [40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51].…”

Nonlinear Statistical Features of the Seismicity in the Subduction Zone of Tehuantepec Isthmus, Southern México

“…The subduction mechanism could be explained as a complex dynamical system, and then attending to what the SOC theory [2] explains, the possibility of predicting earthquakes is scarce (see also [20]). Nevertheless, there are numerous published works dealing on the possibility of statistically identifying precursory signals associated with earthquakes; these signals are associated with the state of stress of the area where a rupture will occur, and they can be linked to changes in the electric and magnetic fields of the subsoil [21][22][23][24][25]; analyses in natural-time of data series in particular have been very successful in such characterizations [24]. The same type of analysis has been used for the characterization of data point processes such as earthquakes, which has allowed the use of the nowcasting method to assess the risk level of an earthquake that exceeds a given magnitude.…”