Predictability in Bond ETF Returns

Purpose – For a number of reasons ranging from their more recent introduction to their perceived lesser excitement relative to stock-based peers, there have been few studies of fixed income (mainly bond) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The purpose of this paper is to fill the void by comparing performance measures of fixed income ETFs to fixed income closed-end funds (CEFs). Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines operating characteristics as well as risk and performance measures of all available fixed income ETFs and CEFs in the USA over the last five and ten years ending on December 31, 2014. Operating characteristics include expense ratios, annual turnover rates, tax cost ratios, and tracking error ratios. Performance measures include average annual returns, risks (measured by standard deviations), and risk-adjusted returns (measured by Sharpe ratios and Sortino ratios). Findings – This study finds material and significant difference in a variety of expenses, return measures, and risk measures. Sharpe and Sortino ratio significance is highly dependent on whether net asset values or market values serve as the dependent variable. ETFs would be the preferred choice of fixed income investors who are presumed to be focussing on market-based return measures. Originality/value – This paper empirically compares operating characteristics as well as risk and performance measures of US fixed income ETFs and fixed income CEFs in the same Morningstar categories over the last five and ten years.

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Do ETFs outperform CEFs in fixed income investing?

Chang

Krueger

Witte

2015

American Journal of Business

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How Fragile Are Loan Mutual Funds?

Emin

James

et al. 2021

SSRN Journal

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Do Fixed-Income ETFs Overreact?

Lobão¹,

Costa²

2019

REyF

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Este artículo investiga la predictibilidad de los precios a corto plazo de los ETF de renta fija de EE. UU. en respuesta a choques extremos de precios. A través de una evaluación de 582 movimientos de precios extremos de los ETF en el período 2007-2014, comparamos los retornos durante el período normal (desde la apertura hasta el final de la sesión) y los retornos fuera de ese horario para un grupo de 87 ETFs. Encontramos un fuerte contraste entre lo que ocurre en estos dos períodos: en promedio, solo los retornos extremos que ocurren fuera del horario normal representan una reacción exagerada, lo que lleva a una reversión significativa en el siguiente período. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los mercados tienden a ser significativamente más ineficientes durante las horas extras. Estos resultados tienen implicaciones importantes tanto para los reguladores como para los profesionales del mercado.

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Predictability in Bond ETF Returns

Cited by 6 publications

References 9 publications

Do ETFs outperform CEFs in fixed income investing?

Do ETFs outperform CEFs in fixed income investing?

How Fragile Are Loan Mutual Funds?

Do Fixed-Income ETFs Overreact?

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