Predictability of Extreme Rainfall Events During Southwest Monsoon (Mswm) Season in Myanmar: A Physics- Based Empirical Modeling Approach

Abstract

The study looks at how well we can predict extreme rainfall days (ERDs) in Myanmar, a country that often experiences heavy flooding due to intense rainfall. The researchers used a special model based on physics and real-world data to see if they could forecast ERDs effectively. They collected rainfall records and various atmospheric ERA5 reanalysis data from evaluate by 79 different stations in Myanmar to develop the model. The results showed that ERDs happen more in certain regions of Myanmar during specific seasons, and certain atmospheric conditions are linked to these events. The physics-based model used in the study proved to be more reliable than statistical methods for predicting ERDs. The relationships between predictors and predictands may change over time, affecting the model's accuracy. The study helps us understand and predict extreme rainfall events in Myanmar using a physics-based model and identifies important atmospheric factors that influence them. This knowledge is vital for society and science. However, more research is needed to address the limitations and improve the accuracy of predictions in the future.