Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System

Tang, Shankai; Qiao, Shaobo; Feng, Tian; Jia, Zikang; Zang, Naihui; Feng, Guolin

doi:10.1002/joc.6670

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…To explore the differences in PEHEs in eastern China, we divided all the stations in eastern China into four subregions for comparison according to the EOF results of the anomalies of EH days in early summer and midsummer. In previous studies, the eastern coastal areas of China were often divided into South China, the Yangtze River valley, and North China based on the overall climate characteristics of the local area (Chen and Lu 2015; Tang et al 2020). According to the spatial characteristics of the EOF of the anomaly of the number of EH days, this paper divides the area north of the Yangtze River into the Huanghuai region and North China, which can better re ect the regional and seasonal differences of PEHEs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal variations of persistent extreme heat events in eastern China under global warming

Zang

Zhao

Yan

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961-2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the 21st century.Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal variations of persistent extreme heat events in eastern China under global warming

Zang

Zhao

Yan

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…The sea surface temperature (SST) data are obtained from the Met Office Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) dataset gridded at 1 × 1 (Reynolds et al, 2002) for the period 1870-2022. The dynamic climate model data are sourced from the CFSv2, which has been particularly successful in seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions (Jiang et al, 2013;Qiao et al, 2020;Tang et al, 2021;Yuan et al, 2011). The data span from 1982 to 2022 and encompass 16 ensemble members (the ensemble mean is utilized in this study), with a 1.0 × 1.0 latitude-longitude resolution.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

A hybrid statistical downscaling prediction model with timescale decomposition for summer precipitation over Hainan Island, China

Zhao,

Wu,

Xiong

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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By observing well‐known sea surface temperature (SST) indices and outputs from Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) hindcasts and predictions, in this study, we developed a hybrid statistical downscaling prediction model (HSDPM) based on a timescale decomposition approach, which effectively improved the forecasting ability of summer (June–August) precipitation over Hainan Island (HNSP) in China; this precipitation presented multiple obvious timescale variabilities. We found that the interannual variability of the HNSP is closely related to the observed North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies in the preceding winter and the summer sea level pressure over the South China Sea by CFSv2 predicted in March. On the other hand, the interdecadal variability in the HNSP is linked to the prewinter Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO) according to the observations, the CFSv2 predictions of the summer surface air temperature over the tropical central‐east Pacific. On this basis, both the interannual and interdecadal components of the HNSP are effectively predicted using the corresponding predictors via multiple regression; thus, the HSDPM is ultimately established by combining the above two components. Compared with the original CFSv2 model, the HSDPM model achieves a considerable improvement in performance in predicting the HNSP. Specifically, the temporal correlation coefficient, ratio of root‐mean‐square error and anomaly sign consistency rate between the observed and HSDPM‐predicted HNSPs are 0.70, 17.4% and 80.5%, respectively, which are significantly greater than the above three forecasting index values of 0.23, 38.3% and 48.8%, respectively, obtained from the original CFSv2 predictions. The application of the HSDPM may be beneficial for drought and flood prevention and mitigation in Hainan Island.

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“…generally have the ability to perform extended-range forecasts for summer precipitation in the East Asian monsoon region and are able to make predictions for about two weeks ahead, then the accuracy quickly decreases, resulting in a significant gap for operational demand [15,16]. For example, Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) predictions show a warm bias for the climatological mean surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley [17]. At the same time, the reception of the slowly varying signals from underlying surfaces such as the ocean, sea ice, and land surface is insufficient.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extended-Range Forecast of Winter Rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Intra-Seasonal Oscillation of Atmospheric Circulations

Xin,

Wang

2024

Atmosphere

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The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is an important economic region in China. Heavy winter rainfall may pose serious threats to city operations. To ensure the safe operation of the city, meteorological departments need to provide forecast results for the Spring Festival travel rush weather service. Therefore, the extended-range forecast of winter rainfall is of considerable importance. To solve this problem, based on the analysis of low-frequency rainfall and the intra-seasonal oscillation of atmospheric circulation, an extended-range forecast model for winter rainfall is developed using spatiotemporal projection methods and is applied to a case study from 2020. The results show that: (1) The precipitation in the YRD during the winter has a significant intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) with a periodicity of 10–30 d. (2) The atmospheric circulations associated with winter rainfall in the YRD have a significant characteristic of low-frequency oscillation. From a 30-day to a 0-day lead, large modifications appear in the low-frequency atmospheric circulations at low, mid, and high latitudes. At low latitudes, strong wet convective activity characterized by a negative OLR combined with a positive RH700 correlation coefficient moves northwestward and covers the entire YRD. Meanwhile, the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) characterized by a positive Z500 anomaly enhances and lifts northward. At mid and high latitudes, the signal of negatively correlated Z500 northwest of Lake Balkhash propagates southeastward, indicating the cold is air moving southward. Multiple circulation factors combine together and lead to the precipitation process in the YRD. (3) Taking the intra-seasonal dynamical evolution process of the atmospheric circulation as the prediction factor, the spatiotemporal method is used to build the model for winter mean extended-range precipitation anomaly tendency in the YRD. The hindcast for the recent 10 years shows that the ensemble model has a higher skill that can reach up to 20 days. In particular, the skill of the eastern part of the YRD can reach 25 days. (4) The rainfall in the 2019/2020 winter has a significant ISO. The ensemble model could forecast the most extreme precipitation for 20 days ahead.

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Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System

Cited by 12 publications

References 66 publications

Interdecadal variations of persistent extreme heat events in eastern China under global warming

Interdecadal variations of persistent extreme heat events in eastern China under global warming

A hybrid statistical downscaling prediction model with timescale decomposition for summer precipitation over Hainan Island, China

Extended-Range Forecast of Winter Rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Intra-Seasonal Oscillation of Atmospheric Circulations

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