Predictability of the quasi‐biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

Scaife, Adam A.; Athanassiadou, Maria; Andrews, Martin B.; Arribas, Alberto; Baldwin, Mark P.; Dunstone, Nick; Knight, Jeff; MacLachlan, Craig; Manzini, Elisa; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Smith, Doug; Stockdale, Tim; Williams, Andrew H

doi:10.1002/2013gl059160

Cited by 149 publications

(187 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…In particular, SSWs have strong influence on the composition of the stratosphere by modulating the tropical ascent of trace species into the stratosphere (Tao et al, 2015a, b). These teleconnections between tropics and high latitudes are still not fully captured by GCMs/CCMs (e.g., Scaife et al, 2014).…”

Section: Relevance Of Ssws For Global Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite observations of middle atmosphere gravity wave absolute momentum flux and of its vertical gradient during recent stratospheric warmings

Ern¹,

Trinh²,

Kaufmann³

et al. 2016

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are circulation anomalies in the polar region during winter. They mostly occur in the Northern Hemisphere and affect also surface weather and climate. Both planetary waves and gravity waves contribute to the onset and evolution of SSWs. While the role of planetary waves for SSW evolution has been recognized, the effect of gravity waves is still not fully understood, and has not been comprehensively analyzed based on global observations. In particular, information on the gravity wave driving of the background winds during SSWs is still missing.

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Section: Relevance Of Ssws For Global Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite observations of middle atmosphere gravity wave absolute momentum flux and of its vertical gradient during recent stratospheric warmings

Ern¹,

Trinh²,

Kaufmann³

et al. 2016

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (Scaife et al, 2014b) and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) (Scaife et al, 2014a). Skilful modelling and good initialisation of these components is essential (Keenlyside et al, 2008); (iii) predictability must come from the large-scale processes and interactions, such as those of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), QBO, and NAO, which must be captured by the global models; (iv) assuming the models capture the effects of external forcing (especially concentration changes of greenhouse gases), prediction means, essentially, prediction of long-term (decadal) internal variability.…”

Section: S Mieruch Et Al: Decadal Forecastmentioning

confidence: 99%

The regional MiKlip decadal forecast ensemble for Europe: the added value of downscaling

et al. 2014

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Abstract. The prediction of climate on time scales of years to decades is attracting the interest of both climate researchers and stakeholders. The German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) has launched a major research programme on decadal climate prediction called MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen, Decadal Climate Prediction) in order to investigate the prediction potential of global and regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper we describe a regional predictive hindcast ensemble, its validation, and the added value of regional downscaling. Global predictions are obtained from an ensemble of simulations by the MPI-ESM-LR model (baseline 0 runs), which were downscaled for Europe using the COSMO-CLM regional model. Decadal hindcasts were produced for the 5 decades starting in 1961 until 2001. Observations were taken from the E-OBS data set. To identify decadal variability and predictability, we removed the long-term mean, as well as the long-term linear trend from the data. We split the resulting anomaly time series into two parts, the first including lead times of 1-5 years, reflecting the skill which originates mainly from the initialisation, and the second including lead times from 6-10 years, which are more related to the representation of low frequency climate variability and the effects of external forcing. We investigated temperature averages and precipitation sums for the summer and winter half-year. Skill assessment was based on correlation coefficient and reliability. We found that regional downscaling preserves, but mostly does not improve the skill and the reliability of the global predictions for summer half-year temperature anomalies. In contrast, regionalisation improves global decadal predictions of half-year precipitation sums in most parts of Europe. The added value results from an increased predictive skill on grid-point basis together with an improvement of the ensemble spread, i.e. the reliability.

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“…The QBO is the dominant mode of the variability in the tropical stratosphere and is itself highly predictable. 15 The QBO represents a downward propagating shift in the mean zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere from westerlies to easterlies and back again, with a period of~2 years. 16 A growing body of research suggests that the state of the stratosphere, as represented by the QBO, influences the nature and predictability of the MJO, 17,18 as well as the MJO's associated atmospheric teleconnections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden–Julian oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation

et al. 2018

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Upon landfall, atmospheric rivers (ARs)-plumes of intense water vapor transport-often trigger weather and hydrologic extremes. Presently, no guidance is available to alert decision makers to anomalous AR activity within the subseasonal time scale (~2-5 weeks). Here, we construct and evaluate an empirical prediction scheme for anomalous AR activity based solely on the initial state of two prominent modes of tropical variability: the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The MJO-the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical troposphere-modulates landfalling AR activity along the west coast of North America by exciting large-scale circulation anomalies over the North Pacific. In light of emerging science regarding the modulation of the MJO by the QBO-the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical stratosphere-we demonstrate that the MJO-AR relationship is further influenced by the QBO. Evaluating the prediction scheme over 36 boreal winter seasons, we find skillful subseasonal "forecasts of opportunity" when knowledge of the MJO and the QBO can be leveraged to predict periods of increased or decreased AR activity. Certain MJO and QBO phase combinations provide empirical subseasonal predictive skill for anomalous AR activity that exceeds that of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Given the wide-ranging impacts associated with landfalling ARs, even modest gains in the subseasonal prediction of anomalous AR activity may support decision making and benefit numerous sectors of society.

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Predictability of the quasi‐biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

Cited by 149 publications

References 47 publications

Satellite observations of middle atmosphere gravity wave absolute momentum flux and of its vertical gradient during recent stratospheric warmings

Satellite observations of middle atmosphere gravity wave absolute momentum flux and of its vertical gradient during recent stratospheric warmings

The regional MiKlip decadal forecast ensemble for Europe: the added value of downscaling

Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden–Julian oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation

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