Predictability of the Solar Cycle Over One Cycle

Abstract

The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows predictions by assimilating the observed magnetic field on the surface. Since the emergence of sunspot groups has random properties, making it impossible to accurately predict the solar cycle and strongly limiting the scope of cycle predictions, we develop a scheme to investigate the predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle. When a cycle has been ongoing for more than three years, the sunspot group emergence can be predicted along with its uncertainty during the rest time of the cycle. The method for this prediction is to start by generating a set of random realizations that obey the statistical relations of the sunspot emergence. We then use a surface flux transport model to calculate the possible axial dipole moment evolutions. The correlation between the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum and the subsequent cycle strength and other empirical properties of solar cycles are used to predict the possible profiles of the subsequent cycle. We apply this scheme to predict the large-scale field evolution from 2018 to the end of cycle 25, whose maximum strength is expected to lie in the range from 93 to 155 with a probability of 95%.

Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

“…Similarly the updated SSN max for cycle 25 is 131 ± 11 if solar minimum of cycle 24 happens in 2021 suggesting also an upcoming cycle 25 stronger than cycle 24. Our prediction, in fact, agrees with the predictions made by Jiang et al (2018), Pesnell and Schatten (2018), and Petrovay et al (2018) who claimed a similar result for the amplitude of cycle 25.…”

“…This unusual behavior has drawn the attention of researchers worldwide who have attempted to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (Bhowmik & Nandy, 2018;Cameron et al, 2016;Gopalswamy et al, 2018;Hathaway & Upton, 2016;Iijima et al, 2017;Janardhan et al, 2015;Jiang et al, 2018;Kakad et al, 2017;Kirov et al, 2018;Macario-Rojas et al, 2018;Pesnell & Schatten, 2018;Petrovay et al, 2018;Sarp et al, 2018;Upton & Hathaway, 2014, 2018. The different estimates of SSN in V1.0 and V2.0 for the amplitude of cycle 25 by different researchers along with the ratio of peak SSN of cycle 25 to cycle 24 are summarized in Table 1.…”

Long-term Variations of Venus’s 365 nm Albedo Observed by Venus Express, Akatsuki, MESSENGER, and the Hubble Space Telescope

“…The period of low 365 nm albedo in this study overlaps the known maximum time of solar activity cycle (Jiang et al 2018) as shown in figure 15. This resembles the correlation of Neptune's reflectivity and the solar activity cycle (Aplin & Harrison 2016).…”

Effect of Morphological Asymmetry between Leading and Following Sunspots on the Prediction of Solar Cycle Activity

“…In the simulations of this study, we excluded the active region with the sunspot group area with less than 100 msh. The tilt angle is determined following Cameron et al (2010) as in Section 3 except for using the cycle dependent factor T n to simulate multiple solar cycles (Cameron et al 2010;Jiang et al 2011Jiang et al , 2018. The separation between polarities is modeled as in Section 3.…”