Predictable Policing: Measuring the Crime Control Benefits of Hotspots Policing at Bus Stops

Ariel, Barak; Partridge, Henry

doi:10.1007/s10940-016-9312-y

Cited by 57 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…Deterrence theory offers the requirement of a heightened level of appreciation that not only is someone observing our behavior but that the observing entity will punish us for transgressions. At a high level of abstraction, there is ample evidence that the perceived certainty of punishment is causally associated with less rule-breaking (Ariel and Partridge 2016;Bushway and Reuter 2008;Lochner 2003;Loughran et al 2012;McCord and Conway 2002;Nagin 2013a;Nagin 2013b;Paternoster 2010;Pratt et al 2006;but cf. Berk and MacDonald 2010;Tonry 2008;Wikström and Treiber 2007).…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These are police departments in which officers are fully cognizant that their interactions with the public are documented and that there is a strong likelihood of apprehension for rule violations. In the language of deterrence theory, Bsanction threats^(see Ariel and Partridge 2016) were at their peak, and in the language of self-awareness theory, BWCs may have triggered a strong cognitive process of selfscrutiny (i.e., Bam I doing the right thing right now?^). BWCs caused a significant reduction in the application of force .…”

Section: Bover-deterrencetmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Paradoxical effects of self-awareness of being observed: testing the effect of police body-worn cameras on assaults and aggression against officers

et al. 2017

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Objectives Recently, scholars have applied self-awareness theory to explain why bodyworn cameras (BWCs) affect encounters between the public and police, with its most immediate manifestation being a reduction in the use of force by and complaints against police. In this study, we report on the paradoxical effects of BWCs in the context of assaults on officers. Methods A multisite randomized controlled trial in ten departments, with officers wearing (or not wearing) BWCs based on random assignment of shifts. Odds ratios are used to estimate the treatment effect on assaults, along with Bone study removedŝ ensitivity analyses. Further subgroup analyses are performed in terms of varying degrees of officers' discretion, to enhance the practical applications of this multisite experiment. Finally, before-analyses are applied as well, control shifts (M = 28.38; SD = 15.99), which translate into 37% higher odds of assault in treatment shifts than in control conditions. The perverse direction and relative magnitude in each experimental site in eight out of ten sites were consistent. The backfiring treatment effect was substantially more pronounced in low discretion sites, i.e., where officers strongly followed the experimental protocol (OR = 2.565; 95% CI 1.792, 3.672). At the same time, before-after analyses show that assaults were overall reduced by 61% in the participating police departments, thus suggesting paradoxical effects.Conclusions We explain these findings using self-awareness theory. Once self-aware that their performance is being observed by BWCs, officers become at risk of being assaulted. Results suggest that under some circumstances, self-awareness can lead to excessive self-inspection that strips power-holders of their ability to function under extreme situations. This mechanism is potentially a function of Bover-deterrence^. The study further demonstrates the benefits of applying psychosocial theories to the study of social control and deterrence theories more broadly, with a robust and falsifiable mechanism that explains the conditions under which being observed stimulates either appropriate or perverse consequences.

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Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Bover-deterrencetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paradoxical effects of self-awareness of being observed: testing the effect of police body-worn cameras on assaults and aggression against officers

et al. 2017

Self Cite

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“…Although quantifying displacement effects require intricate measurements, this phenomenon is often prominently observed to be a result of highly focused police activities (6, 7). In truth, the unintended adverse consequences of implementing anti-drug initiatives and drug control mechanisms are not new concepts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hidden Drug Abuse in Hong Kong: From Social Acquaintance to Social Isolation

Tam

Kwok

et al. 2018

Front. Psychiatry

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The present paper examines the issue of hidden drug abuse in Hong Kong. Although official statistics show that the reported number of drug-abuse cases has been in decline in recent years, it has been reported that drug abusers tend to hide themselves at home to take drugs; thus, they are not discovered easily by the law enforcement and social control agents who report drug abuse cases to the Central Registry of Drug Abuse, resulting in the decrease in the reported number of drug-abuse cases. This “dark figure” phenomenon is a reflection of the official figure and reporting behavior, not the actual situation of drug abuse in Hong Kong. Through in-depth interviews of 30 ex-drug addicts, the majority of them started drug taking in early youth, the present paper identifies five stages of drug taking from social acquaintance to social isolation. It argues that although drug taking among abusers is a kind of social activity in their initial stage of drug use, they become socially isolated when their drug use is prolonged. Several reasons are identified, including users' easy accessibility to drugs and changes in the popularity of drugs and use of drug equipment. Most importantly, the hidden process is triggered and aggravated by numerous negative drug effects, such as decline in physical health, weak physical appearance leading to self-perceived discrimination, co-occurrence of psychiatric symptoms of increased anxiety and suspicion, and decline of trust among peers due to prolonged drug abuse. Possible solutions associated with clinical interventions, legislative policies, and law-enforcement operations are proposed.

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“…Police presence may not always create a general deterrent effect if there is too much predictability associated with the officers' presence. That may explain why, for example, victim-reported crimes actually went up around bus stops when police focused patrols on bus stops with high levels of crime, predictably leaving with the buses for a police-free period of time in which to prey on victims (Ariel and Partridge 2016). If offenders, in general, can predict when and where police visits are going to occur, residual deterrence will be lost and crime may go up.…”

Section: Deterrence Theory For Hot Spot Patrolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency Versus Duration of Police Patrol Visits for Reducing Crime in Hot Spots: Non-Experimental Findings from the Sacramento Hot Spots Experiment

Mitchell

2017

Camb J Evid Based Polic

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Research Question Was the effect of police patrols reducing crime and disorder in the Sacramento Hot Spots Experiment (SHSE) more strongly associated with the average frequency of patrol visits or the total duration of all visits combined? Data Two independent measures of patrol were used to analyze initial and new data on the 42 hot spots that Telep et al. (2014) studied in 21 matched pairs for the SHSE: Computer-Assisted Dispatch (CAD) records on the number of and duration of patrol visits to each hot spot (initial data), and Automatic Vehicle Locator (AVL) (new) data on total patrol time within the Bgeo-fenced^area of each hot spot. The patrol measures were linked to two outcome measures at each hot spot. Part I crime reports and citizen-generated Calls for Service (CFS) records for events occurring within the hot spot street address boundaries. Methods All SHSE pairs of hot spots were examined as a meta-analysis of 21 experiments for differences in frequency and total duration of patrols. Then all 42 hot spots were examined for correlations between outcome measures and CAD data on frequency and duration, plus AVL data on duration [AVL data could not reliably measure frequency of discrete patrol visits]. Findings The SHSE created large mean differences between experimental and control conditions in both frequency and total duration of patrols, which were highly correlated (r = .9). Correlations of CAD measures of before-during increases in frequency, but not duration, of patrols across all 42 hot spots predicted somewhat fewer event counts of both outcome measures: crime reports (r = −.273, one-tailed p = .04) and CFS (r = −.234, one-tailed p = .068). In contrast, AVL data on before-during increases in duration showed somewhat less crime with more duration of total patrol time (r = −.231, one-tailed p = .07), but no effect of more duration on CFS. Conclusions Based on the analysis of CAD data, police may be able to reduce crime and disorder more effectively by making more frequent patrols in each hot spot, while reducing the total time of all patrols. Contrary to the policy conclusion from the Koper (1995) Curve, the CAD findings may suggest there is greater benefit in having more visits of under 15 min rather than having fewer visits that all last from 10 to 15 min each. Yet, the evidence from this study is mixed. The CAD finding is contradicted by this study's AVL data analysis, which show that greater increases in total patrol duration did predict somewhat fewer crimes (but not CFS). Since both the CAD and AVL findings are correlational rather than based on random assignment of frequency and duration, field experiments are now needed to provide more definitive answers to the research question.

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Predictable Policing: Measuring the Crime Control Benefits of Hotspots Policing at Bus Stops

Cited by 57 publications

References 87 publications

Paradoxical effects of self-awareness of being observed: testing the effect of police body-worn cameras on assaults and aggression against officers

Paradoxical effects of self-awareness of being observed: testing the effect of police body-worn cameras on assaults and aggression against officers

Hidden Drug Abuse in Hong Kong: From Social Acquaintance to Social Isolation

Frequency Versus Duration of Police Patrol Visits for Reducing Crime in Hot Spots: Non-Experimental Findings from the Sacramento Hot Spots Experiment

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