Predicted 21st century climate variability in southeastern U.S. using downscaled CMIP5 and meta-analysis

Anandhi, Aavudai; Bentley, Chance

doi:10.1016/j.catena.2018.06.005

Cited by 25 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…From the bar plots, scenario lines, and funnels (Columns a to d in Figure ), it was observed that the changes in temperature and precipitation were different across the classes. More information on spatio‐temporal variability in temperature and precipitation changes in SEUS can be obtained from Anandhi and Bentley ().…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can meta‐analysis be used as a decision‐making tool for developing scenarios and causal chains in eco‐hydrological systems? Case study in Florida

2018

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To date, there are a high volume of studies concerning climate change impact assessments in ecosystems. Meta‐analysis, scenario development, and causal chains/loops have been used as tools in these assessments as well as in decision making either individually or combined in pairs. There exists a need to develop decision support tools that improve the linkage between climate‐impacts research and planning, management, adaptation, and mitigation decisions by providing quantitative and timely information to stakeholders and managers. The overall goal is to address this need. A specific objective was to develop a decision support tool in eco‐hydrological applications that combine three components: meta‐analysis, scenario development, and causal chains/loop. The developed tool is novel, warranted, and timely. The use of the tool is demonstrated for Florida. The meta‐analysis of 32 studies revealed precipitation changes ranged between +30% and −40%, and temperature changes ranged from +6°C to −3°C for Florida. Seven incremental scenarios were developed at 10% increments in the precipitation change range and nine scenarios with 1°C increments in the temperature change range (driving forces). The causal chains/loops were developed using Driver‐Pressure‐State‐Impact‐Response framework for selected ecosystems and environment (e.g., agroecosystem, mangroves, water resources, and sea turtles) in Florida. The driving force puts pressure on the ecosystem or environment impacting their state, which in turn had a response (e.g., mitigation and adaptation strategies). The framework used indicators selected from studies on climate impact assessments (meta‐analysis and others) for the selected ecosystems as well as author expertise on the topic to develop the chains/loops. The decision tool is applicable to stakeholders and any ecosystem within and outside of Florida.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can meta‐analysis be used as a decision‐making tool for developing scenarios and causal chains in eco‐hydrological systems? Case study in Florida

2018

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“…A key step in estimating the frequency and magnitude of T extreme events in streams is accurately characterizing air-water temperature relationships, which involve a multitude of heat transfer pathways that change along environmental gradients and will differ between historical and future climates (Luce et al 2014). Another consideration is that our projections of T extreme events do not explicitly incorporate the role of streamflow in mediating air-water temperature relationships which, in addition to temperature, is forecasted to change in southern Appalachia (Anandhi and Bentley 2018) and elsewhere in the world (Santiago et al 2017). Increasing daily temperature variation is also likely to increase in the future (Wang and Dillon 2014).…”

Section: Future Shifts In Elevation Limitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme heat events and the vulnerability of endemic montane fishes to climate change

Troia

Giam

2019

Ecography

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Identifying how close species live to their physiological thermal maxima is essential to understand historical warm-edge elevational limits of montane faunas and forecast upslope shifts caused by future climate change. We used laboratory experiments to quantify the thermal tolerance and acclimation potential of four fishes (Notropis leuciodus, N. rubricroceus, Etheostoma rufilineatum, E. chlorobranchium) that are endemic to the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), exhibit different historical elevational limits, and represent the two most species-rich families in the region. All-subsets selection of linear regression models using AIC c indicated that species, acclimation temperature, collection location and month, and the interaction between species and acclimation temperature were important predictors of thermal maxima (T max ), which ranged from 28.5 to 37.2°C. Next, we implemented water temperature models and stochastic weather generation to characterize the magnitude and frequency of extreme heat events (T extreme ) under historical and future climate scenarios across 25 379 stream reaches in the upper Tennessee River system. Lastly, we used environmental niche models to compare warming tolerances (acclimation-corrected T max minus T extreme ) between historically occupied versus unoccupied reaches. Historical warming tolerances, ranging from +2.2 to +10.9°C, increased from low to high elevation and were positive for all species, suggesting that T max does not drive warm-edge (low elevation) range limits. Future warming tolerances were lower (−1.2 to +9.3°C) but remained positive for all species under the direst warming scenario except for a small proportion of reaches historically occupied by E. rufilineatum, indicating that T max and acclimation potentials of southern Appalachian minnows and darters are adequate to survive future heat waves. We caution concluding that these species are invulnerable to 21st century warming because sublethal thermal physiology remains poorly understood. Integrating physiological sensitivity and warming exposure demonstrates a general and fine-grained approach to assess climate change vulnerability for freshwater organisms across physiographically diverse riverscapes.

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“…Changes in temperature and precipitation observed from literature were used in the meta-analysis. More details of the meta-analysis can be obtained from [5].…”

Section: Data Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[29]. More details of the data can be obtained from [5,29,30]. Changes in temperature and precipitation observed from literature were used in the meta-analysis.…”

Section: Data Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrologic Characteristics of Streamflow in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast Hydrologic Region during 1939–2016 and Conceptual Map of Potential Impacts

2018

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Streamflow is one the most important variables controlling and maintaining aquatic ecosystem integrity, diversity, and sustainability. This study identified and quantified changes in 34 hydrologic characteristics and parameters at 30 long term discharge stations in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast Hydrologic Region (Region 3) using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) variables. The southeastern United States (SEUS) is a biodiversity hotspot, and the region has experienced a number of rapid land use/land cover changes with multiple primary drivers. Studies in the SEUS have been mostly localized on specific rivers, reservoir catchments and/or species, but the overall region has not been assessed for the long-term period of 1939-2016 for multiple hydrologic characteristic parameters. The objectives of the study were to provide an overview of multiple river basins and 31 hydrologic characteristic parameters of streamflow in Region 3 for a longer period and to develop a conceptual map of impacts of selected stressors and changes in hydrology and climate in the SEUS. A seven step procedure was used to accomplish these objectively:Step 1: Download data from the 30 USGS gauging stations. Steps 2 and 3: Select and analyze the 31 IHA parameters using boxplots, scatter plots, and PDFs. Steps 4 and 5: Synthesize the drivers of changes and alterations and the various change points in streamflow in the literature.Step 6: Synthesize the climate of the SEUS in terms of temperature and precipitation changes.Step 7: Develop a conceptual map of impacts of selected stressors on hydrology using Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework and IHA parameters. The 31 IHA parameters were analyzed. The meta-analysis of literature in the SEUS revealed the precipitation changes observed ranged from −30% to +35% and temperature changes from −2 • C to 6 • C by 2099. The fiftieth percentile of the Global Climate Models (GCM) predict no precipitation change and an increase in the temperature of 2.5 • C in the region by 2099. Among the GCMs, the 5th and 95th percentile of precipitation changes range between −40% and 110% and temperature changes between −2 • C and 6 • C by 2099. Meta-analysis of land use/land cover show the region has experienced changes. A number of rapid land use/land cover changes in 1957, 1970, and 1998 are some of the change points documented in the literature for precipitation and streamflow in the region. A conceptual map was developed to represent the impacts of selected drivers and the changes in hydrology and climate in the study region for three land use/land cover categories in three different periods.

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Predicted 21st century climate variability in southeastern U.S. using downscaled CMIP5 and meta-analysis

Cited by 25 publications

References 46 publications

Can meta‐analysis be used as a decision‐making tool for developing scenarios and causal chains in eco‐hydrological systems? Case study in Florida

Can meta‐analysis be used as a decision‐making tool for developing scenarios and causal chains in eco‐hydrological systems? Case study in Florida

Extreme heat events and the vulnerability of endemic montane fishes to climate change

Hydrologic Characteristics of Streamflow in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast Hydrologic Region during 1939–2016 and Conceptual Map of Potential Impacts

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