Predicted Forage Yield Based on Fall Precipitation in California Annual Grasslands

Murphy, Alfred H.

doi:10.2307/3896168

Cited by 87 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The hump-shaped response of NPP to precipitation helps unify divergent results about the dependence of California grassland NPP on the amount and timing of precipitation (20)(21)(22) decreased, or was unaffected by variation in annual precipitation. Had our precipitation treatment significantly altered the seasonal distribution of rainfall, rather than amplifying natural variation, shifts in plant community composition likely would have altered the NPP response (22).…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change

Zhu

Chiariello

Tobeck

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

134

110

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Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO 2 , and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO 2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO 2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.California grassland | climate change | ecosystem ecology | global change experiment | Jasper Ridge A cross the globe, terrestrial ecosystems are experiencing simultaneous changes in climate, atmospheric composition, pollutant deposition, and broad-scale changes in land use, biological invasions, and disturbance regimes, including wildfire. How ecosystems respond will have profound consequences for the goods and services they provide for humans, including feedbacks to atmospheric composition and climate. Predicting ecosystem responses to these global changes is challenging due to the number of factors and the possibility of interactive effects across physiological, ecological, and biogeochemical aspects of ecosystem function. Manipulative experiments, which can resolve singlefactor and interactive effects, can effectively address these challenges, especially when focused on metrics such as net primary production (NPP) that integrate across many levels of response. For example, experiments combining warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 have mostly reported increases in NPP, with stimulatory effects of elevated CO 2 partially eroded by the effects of warming (1). Experiments combining either of these factors with other treatments have been diverse, with the magnitude of ecosystem responses generally decreasing as the number of global-change factors increases (2, 3). However, four difficulties complicate the interpretation of multifactor globalchange experiments: Few experiments incorporate a realistic range of interacting factors, making it difficult to connect experimental with real-world responses; most experiments involve only two levels of each factor (e.g., ambient and +2°C warming), making it difficult t...

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mentioning

confidence: 97%

Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change

Zhu

Chiariello

Tobeck

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

134

110

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Por otra parte, en pastizales de California, EEUU, con 900 mm de precipitación anual, la productividad se asoció con las precipitaciones anuales, las que tuvieron un efecto directo sobre el rendimiento de las especies que participaban en su estructura, y otro indirecto a través del momento en que se produjo el crecimiento de las especies anuales (Murphy, 1970). En Irlanda se aplicó un modelo de regresión lineal para estimar el rendimiento estacional de una pastura (Han et al, 2003).…”

Section: Los Coeficientes De Variación De Los Pro-unclassified

Evaluación de la productividad primaria de un pastizal templado en Santa Fe, Argentina

et al. 2011

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“…High forage yields result from years with early-season (November) combined with late-season (April) rains. 3,4 Because 50% to 75% of annual rangeland forage production occurs in March and April, spring precipitation has a large infl uence on total annual forage production. Table 2.…”

Section: Forage Lossmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining Drought on California’s Mediterranean-Type Rangelands, The Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program

George¹,

Larsen²,

McDougald³

2010

Rangelands

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Predicted Forage Yield Based on Fall Precipitation in California Annual Grasslands

Cited by 87 publications

References 4 publications

Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change

Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change

Evaluación de la productividad primaria de un pastizal templado en Santa Fe, Argentina

Determining Drought on California’s Mediterranean-Type Rangelands, The Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program

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