2021
DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33884
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Predicted long‐term impact of COVID‐19 pandemic‐related care delays on cancer mortality in Canada

Abstract: The COVID‐19 pandemic has affected cancer care worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the long‐term impacts of cancer care disruptions on cancer mortality in Canada using a microsimulation model. The model simulates cancer incidence and survival using cancer incidence, stage at diagnosis and survival data from the Canadian Cancer Registry. We modeled reported declines in cancer diagnoses and treatments recorded in provincial administrative datasets in March 2020 to June 2021. Based on the literature, we assum… Show more

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Cited by 90 publications
(89 citation statements)
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“…Based on the findings of this study, the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted cancer diagnoses in general and specialized practices in Germany. This disruption in cancer care may have major deleterious effects among patients with cancer, and these effects may include increased tumor dimensions (Vanni et al 2021 ) and higher rates of node invasion at diagnosis (Linck et al 2021 ) as well as higher short-term (Lai et al 2020 ) and long-term mortality (Alagoz et al 2021 ; Malagón et al 2021 ). Public health measures should be implemented in this country to mitigate the deleterious effects of this health crisis on the diagnosis of cancer.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Based on the findings of this study, the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted cancer diagnoses in general and specialized practices in Germany. This disruption in cancer care may have major deleterious effects among patients with cancer, and these effects may include increased tumor dimensions (Vanni et al 2021 ) and higher rates of node invasion at diagnosis (Linck et al 2021 ) as well as higher short-term (Lai et al 2020 ) and long-term mortality (Alagoz et al 2021 ; Malagón et al 2021 ). Public health measures should be implemented in this country to mitigate the deleterious effects of this health crisis on the diagnosis of cancer.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Each 4-week delay in cancer surgery, radiotherapy, or systemic therapy leads to a 6–8% increase in mortality, but there is evidence of significant heterogeneity in this association according to patient characteristics such as age, comorbidity, and geographic region [ 34 , 35 ]. Longer delays across multiple needed treatments are also associated with greater mortality [ 36 ]. Moreover, as we observed greater delays among individuals with Medicaid insurance, and others have found disparities in COVID-19-related changes in cancer screening among racial/ethnic minorities [ 37 ], the impact could be unevenly distributed and be more severe in vulnerable populations including patients with lower socioeconomic status.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This discrepancy can be explained by the different settings considered and by the different analytical approaches used in the articles. Nonetheless, the impact of the pandemic on the burden of cancer is still unknown and will probably be fully understood only in the next decades (Malagón et al 2022 ; Englum et al 2022 ). Moreover, the suspension of screening programs in many areas, combined with the reduction of surgical interventions and non-urgent visits, will affect cancer mortality, and increase its burden on societies, in a way which is still difficult to quantify.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%