Predicted Pleistocene–Holocene range and connectivity declines of the vulnerable fishing cat and insights for current conservation

Abstract

Aim Identifying appropriate conservation measures requires a reasonable understanding of a species' population status, distribution and vulnerability. However, for many species, these variables may not be understood under the context of current conditions alone. Here, we assess the potential role historical changes in climate, sea level and anthropogenic activity may have had on the distribution of one of the world's least‐understood wild cats and identify broader implications for conservation efforts that may not be apparent from just an examination of the species' current distribution. Location Tropical Asia. Taxon Fishing cat (Prionailurus viverrinus). Methods We used a presence‐only ecological niche model and a least‐cost graph‐based connectivity model to characterize the species' bio‐climatic niche and predict changes in suitability and connectivity under current and paleoenvironmental conditions. Results Fishing cat occurrence was associated with landscapes that were low in elevation and high in topographic wetness and climates that were warm with moderate annual precipitation and moderate seasonal variation in both temperature and precipitation. Since the Last Interglacial, the area predicted to be climatically suitable has ranged from 5.9 million km2 during the Last Glacial Maximum to 2.2 million km2 during the Current Era. Changes in regional connectivity correlated with changes in suitable area for all periods except the Current Era. Relative connectivity of areas affected by past sea level rise was highest in areas with large alluvial plains, emergent coastal areas and deltas. Main conclusions Our findings suggest that the fishing cat's current distribution and vulnerability can be explained by a synergistic combination of historical climate change, sea level rise, and anthropogenic land‐use change. Changes in suitability and connectivity over time highlight potential core areas that are underrepresented by historical survey efforts. Future survey efforts should include these areas, with an emphasis on quantifying tolerances to anthropogenic disturbances.