Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective

Baltensperger, Andrew P.; Huettmann, Falk

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0132054

Cited by 42 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 76 publications

(114 reference statements)

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“…The percent change in mean square error (%MSE), and the increase in node purity between the observed values and the randomized values of each variable, averaged over all trees (the “forest” of 500 trees in our case), are used as the measure of the predictive value of that variable. RF has been used to successfully to predict, for example, levels of forest defoliation by spruce budworm based on forest stand characteristics (Candau and Fleming ), and small mammal distribution and diversity based on habitat characteristics (Baltensperger and Huettmann ). Although based on classification and regression tree analysis, RF does not produce a single “best” regression tree.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pivotal effect of early‐winter temperatures and snowfall on population growth of alpineParnassius smintheusbutterflies

Roland

Matter

2016

Ecological Monographs

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Geographic range shifts in species' distributions, due to climate change, imply altered dynamics at both their northern and southern range limits, or at upper and lower elevational limits. There is therefore a need to identify specific weather or climate variable(s), and life stages or cohorts on which they act, and how these affect population growth. Identifying such variables permits prediction of population increase or decline under a changing climate, and shifts in a species' geographic range. For relatively well studied groups, such as butterflies, geographic range shifts are well documented, but weather variables and mechanisms causing those shifts are not well known. The Holarctic butterfly genus Parnassius (Papilionidae) inhabits northern and alpine environments subject to variable and extreme weather. As such, Parnassius species are vulnerable not only to long-term changes in average conditions but especially to short-term extreme weather events. We use population growth estimates for the alpine butterfly, Parnassius smintheus, from 21 populations in the Rocky Mountains of Canada over a 20-yr interval combined with techniques of machine learning (randomForests) and parametric modeling to identify the important weather variables determining population growth. We do this to determine the seasons and life stages of P. smintheus most affected by climate change. Extreme minimum and maximum temperatures in November, in combination with November snowfall, affect annual population growth most, more so than do mean temperatures in November, and more so than weather at any other time of year. Populations decline both in years with low extreme minimum temperatures in November and especially in years with high extreme maximum temperatures in November, indicating that overwintering eggs are particularly vulnerable to early-winter weather. Snowfall ameliorates the negative effects of extreme temperatures, particularly for extreme warm events. Results provide insight into biological mechanisms by which overwintering eggs might be affected by early winter weather. Shortterm extreme weather in November, acting on a single pivotal life stage (egg) is a far better predictor of population change of alpine P. smintheus butterflies than is the general index of climate, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pivotal effect of early‐winter temperatures and snowfall on population growth of alpineParnassius smintheusbutterflies

Roland

Matter

2016

Ecological Monographs

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“…Such conditions will likely favor the continued expansion of L. americanus into northern and western Alaska. Tundra-associated mammals such as the Barren Ground Shrew (Sorex ugyunak) and Singing Vole (Microtus miurus) are predicted to undergo range shifts away from western and southern extents of Arctic tundra (Hope et al 2013;Baltensperger and Huettmann 2015).…”

Section: Taxonomy and Gene Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revised distribution of an Alaskan endemic, the Alaska Hare (Lepus othus), with implications for taxonomy, biogeography, and climate change

et al. 2016

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The Alaska Hare (Lepus othus Merriam 1900) is the largest lagomorph in North America but remains one of the most poorly studied terrestrial mammals on the continent. Its current distribution is restricted to western Alaska south of the Brooks Range, but historical accounts from north of the Brooks Range (the North Slope) have led to confusion over its past, present, and predicted future distributions. To determine if L. othus occurs or historically occurred on the North Slope, we surveyed museum collections, vetted observational accounts, and produced a spatial distribution model based on the resulting georeferenced records. We located a historic specimen long presumed lost that suggests the occurrence of L. othus on the North Slope as recently as the late 1800s. We also uncovered evidence of L. othus and (or) Mountain Hare (Lepus timidus Linnaeus 1758) on several islands in the Bering Sea, raising the possibility of recurring gene flow between these closely related species across seasonal ice connecting Asia and North America. While our results paint a more complete picture of the current distribution of L. othus, persistent uncertainties surrounding its taxonomic status and potential northward range shift onto lands reserved for oil and gas development call for additional study.

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“…Unlike talus specialists, which have restricted distributions, tundra-adapted species in Alaska are widespread and often occupy a range of habitats within the broader tundra ecosystem. Moreover, distribution models for these species disagree about the magnitude and direction of climate change effects (Baltensperger and Huettmann 2015; Hope et al 2015). Thus, for tundra-adapted species, we assumed that the geographic scope of habitat loss due to climate change would affect no more than 30% of the population, and, where habitat loss occurred, it would result in no more than a 30% decline in population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conservation status, threats, and information needs of small mammals in Alaska

Droghini

Christie

Kelty

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Despite their diversity and ecological importance, small mammals are under-represented in conservation research relative to other mammals. We evaluated the conservation status of 36 small mammal species in Alaska, U.S.A. using a ranking system that we previously developed, the Alaska Species Ranking System (ASRS). We compared results from the ASRS with NatureServe's subnational rankings. Finally, we surveyed taxonomic experts to identify recommended conservation actions and research priorities for 5 species of high conservation concern. In general, the ASRS and NatureServe agreed on the rankings of species in the highest and lowest risk categories. Species of highest conservation concern were taxa endemic to the state, including 2 island-endemic shrews, and taxa from the orders Chiroptera and Eulipotyphla. Because the ASRS includes information needs in its assessment, 15 of the 20 species considered lowest concern by NatureServe were considered intermediate concern by the ASRS. In the ASRS, most species (n = 24) were assessed to have low biological vulnerabilities, but high information needs. Population size and trends were unknown for all species; distributional limits and understanding of population dynamics were incomplete for all species except 4. Disease and climate change effects on habitat were perceived as important threats, but affected only 8 species. Taxonomic experts identified addressing data deficiencies and protecting habitat as important conservation actions; they identified monitoring population trends, modeling habitat, and researching species' genetic diversity and adaptive capacity as high priorities. Conservation assessments that require accurate and current data on population trends or threats may lead to bias against data deficient groups such as small mammals. Our findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for data deficiencies in conservation status ranks to avoid conflation of sparse information with low conservation concern.

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Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective

Cited by 42 publications

References 76 publications

Pivotal effect of early‐winter temperatures and snowfall on population growth of alpineParnassius smintheusbutterflies

Pivotal effect of early‐winter temperatures and snowfall on population growth of alpineParnassius smintheusbutterflies

Revised distribution of an Alaskan endemic, the Alaska Hare (Lepus othus), with implications for taxonomy, biogeography, and climate change

Conservation status, threats, and information needs of small mammals in Alaska

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