Predicting Acute Pancreatitis Severity: Comparison of Prognostic Scores

Simões, Marco; Alves, Priscila Souza Sarmento; Esperto, Helder; Canha, Catarina; Meira, Elisa; Ferreira, E.; Gomes, Maria Rosemary da Silva; Fonseca, Isabel; Barbosa, Benilde; Costa, Nascimento

doi:10.4021/gr364w

Cited by 28 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 18 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Three SAP patients with organ failure had Ranson score ≥3 on admission and 17 patients had Ranson score ≥3 after 48 hours of admission, in comparison to our study [10]. Simoes et al reported that the Ranson score had a higher sensitivity of 91.2% in predicting severity, but had lesser specificity compared to this study [13]. Kim et al reported that the Ranson score had the highest accuracy based on AUC [14].…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 47%

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Observational Study

Venkatesh¹,

Vijayakumar²,

Balasubramaniyan³

et al. 2020

Cureus

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition of the pancreas mostly due to alcohol or gallstones. Various scoring systems were involved in identifying the severity of the disease. The standard single score to identifying the severity remains uncertain. Methodology This prospective observational study was carried out for two years in a tertiary care center from South India. The diagnosis of AP was made based on Atlanta criteria, and a total of 164 patients were included. All patients were assessed by acute physiology and chronic health evaluation ll (APACHE II), bedside index for severity in AP (BISAP), modified Glasgow score (MGS), and Ranson score on admission and 48 hours after admission scores. Procalcitonin was done in all patients with AP. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) of the abdomen was done in 69 patients who had features of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and diagnostic accuracy were calculated for each score, and procalcitonin for CT documented severe patients and organ failure patients together. Results A total of 164 patients were included in this study. CT abdomen showed a modified CT severity index (MCSI) ≥8 in all 69 (100%) patients. APACHE II score could predict SAP based on CT findings in 44 patients (63.76%), BISAP score in 22 patients (31.88%), MGS in 55 patients (79.71%), Ranson score at admission in 31 patients (44.92%), Ranson score 48 hours after admission in 44 patients (63.76%), and procalcitonin on admission in 69 patients (100%) when cutoff used as per the literature. APACHE II score could predict SAP in cases of AP (n=164) in 52 patients (50%), BISAP score in 27 patients (26%), MGS in 79 patients (76%), Ranson score at admission in 34 patients (33%), and Ranson score 48 hours after admission in 61 (59%) patients when cutoff was used as per the literature. This study demonstrated that Ranson score on admission had a good area under the curve (AUC). AUC (0.8483), APACHE II (AUC 0.7708), and Ranson score 48 hours after admission (AUC 0.8167) had a fair accuracy. BISAP (AUC 0.6399) and MGS (AUC 0.6486) had poor accuracy for the prediction of severity in AP based on receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves.

show abstract

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 47%

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Observational Study

Venkatesh¹,

Vijayakumar²,

Balasubramaniyan³

et al. 2020

Cureus

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The Ranson 's score was considered a major success in assessing the severity of AP and has been used for over thirty years to predict AP severity. Literature shows a cut off value of 3 for severe pancreatitis (19) .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This scoring system i.e. CTSI has a maximum of ten points, and patients with CTSI more than 6 have higher chances of developing complications and death (19) . Lautz et al reported that in comparison to a clinical scoring system the CT severity index is more predictable for identifying children with severe pancreatitis that are at higher risk for developing serious complications (21) .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Acute Pancreatitis in Young Age Group

Ahmad¹,

Changeez

Tariq³

et al. 2017

IAM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objectives: The burden of hospital admissions for acute pancreatitis (AP) has significantly increased in past few years across the globe. In severe form it is one of the deadliest diseases of hepatobiliary system. Acute pancreatitis is a noticeable health issue which leads more than million hospital admissions in USA per year. The incidence of this disease in young age group has also increase dramatically. The purpose of this study was to identify the causes, severity and outcomes of AP in young population. Study Design: A Prospective, cross-sectional study Setting: Surgical Unit 1 Holy Family Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan Study Duration: June 2014 to March 2017. Materials &Methods: All patients between 12 and 25 years with clinical features of Acute Pancreatitis, having serum amylase greater than three times the upper normal limit or raised lipase levels, were included in our study. Causes, clinical features, severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis were evaluated. Results: A total A total of 78 patients were included in our study out of which 63 (80.8 %) were female and 15 (19.2 %) were males. Gall bladder stones were the main cause of pancreatitis in 54 (69%) patients followed by drugs in 13 (17%) patients. Contrast enhanced computerized tomography scan (CT scan) done between 24 to 48 hours of presentation showed 30 (38.5%) patients had necrotizing pancreatitis whereas 48 (61.5 %) patients had interstitial pancreatitis. The organ failure which was predominantly pulmonary system occurred in 15 (19.2 %) of patients All 78 patients were discharge from hospital without any mortality. Conclusion: In resource limited countries acute pancreatitis is posing a great burden to emergency as well as outpatient departments of tertiary care hospitals. This study concluded that etiology of acute pancreatitis is significantly different in young age group although the predominant causative factor is still gallstones.

show abstract

“…Among these scoring systems, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) are widely used in the clinic. Although the APACHE II scoring system is valuable in evaluating the severity of AP, the scoring process is cumbersome . The BISAP score can be assessed on the first day of admission, but the accuracy and sensitivity of prediction are not high …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the APACHE II scoring system is valuable in evaluating the severity of AP, the scoring process is cumbersome. 3 The BISAP score can be assessed on the first day of admission, but the accuracy and sensitivity of prediction are not high. 4 Computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) play important roles in evaluating the complications of AP.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Radiomics model of contrast‐enhanced MRI for early prediction of acute pancreatitis severity

Lin

Chen

et al. 2019

Magnetic Resonance Imaging

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Computed tomography (CT) or MR images may cause the severity of early acute pancreatitis (AP) to be underestimated. As an innovative image analysis method, radiomics may have potential clinical value in early prediction of AP severity. Purpose To develop a contrast‐enhanced (CE) MRI‐based radiomics model for the early prediction of AP severity. Study Type Retrospective. Subjects A total of 259 early AP patients were divided into two cohorts, a training cohort (99 nonsevere, 81 severe), and a validation cohort (43 nonsevere, 36 severe). Field Strength/Sequence 3.0T, T1‐weighted CE‐MRI. Assessment Radiomics features were extracted from the portal venous‐phase images. The "Boruta" algorithm was used for feature selection and a support vector machine model was established with optimal features. The MR severity index (MRSI), the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) were calculated to predict the severity of AP. Statistical Tests Independent t‐test, Mann–Whitney U‐test, chi‐square test, Fisher's exact tests, Boruta algorithm, receiver operating characteristic analysis, DeLong test. Results Eleven potential features were chosen to develop the radiomics model. In the training cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) of the radiomics model, APACHE II, BISAP, and MRSI were 0.917, 0.750, 0.744, and 0.749, and the P value of AUC comparisons between the radiomics model and scoring systems were all less than 0.001. In the validation cohort, the AUC of the radiomics model, APACHE II, BISAP, and MRSI were 0.848, 0.725, 0.708, and 0.719, respectively, and the P value of AUC comparisons were 0.96 (radiomics vs. APACHE II), 0.40 (radiomics vs. BISAP), and 0.46 (radiomics vs. MRSI). Data Conclusion The radiomics model had good performance in the early prediction of AP severity. Level of Evidence: 3 Technical Efficacy Stage: 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2020;51:397–406.

show abstract

Predicting Acute Pancreatitis Severity: Comparison of Prognostic Scores

Cited by 28 publications

References 18 publications

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Observational Study

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Observational Study

Analysis of Acute Pancreatitis in Young Age Group

Radiomics model of contrast‐enhanced MRI for early prediction of acute pancreatitis severity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About