2018
DOI: 10.5539/jas.v10n11p562
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Predicting Asian Soybean Rust Epidemics Based on Off-Season Occurrence and El Niño Southern Oscillation Phenomenon in Paraná and Mato Grosso States, Brazil

Abstract: The study aimed to propose models to predict Asian soybean rust epidemics based on both the occurrence of the disease in the period between seasons and the climate variability index, which is influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The data used to develop these models were obtained from 11 crop seasons, distributed among six regions of Paraná and twelve regions of Mato Grosso which was determined by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). The three-dim… Show more

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Cited by 8 publications
(5 citation statements)
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“…The increase in severity of Asian rust during the crop is determined by environmental factors, including night temperature (between 18 and 26.5 o C), continuous leaf wetness and constant rainfall (EMBRAPA, 2013b;MINCHIO et al, 2018). In the present study, Asian rust was late diagnosed in both seasons, that is, in the first half and at the end of February for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 crops, respectively (Figure 1).…”
Section: Resultssupporting
confidence: 46%
“…The increase in severity of Asian rust during the crop is determined by environmental factors, including night temperature (between 18 and 26.5 o C), continuous leaf wetness and constant rainfall (EMBRAPA, 2013b;MINCHIO et al, 2018). In the present study, Asian rust was late diagnosed in both seasons, that is, in the first half and at the end of February for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 crops, respectively (Figure 1).…”
Section: Resultssupporting
confidence: 46%
“…Using SBR prevalence data, also reported by the consortium, Minchio et al (2018) explored the effects of weather and ENSO-related variables on the final prevalence data reported for two states in Brazil: Mato Grosso (Mid-Western Region) and Paraná (PR in Fig. 1), both spanning 11 seasons (from 2004/05 to 2014/15 seasons).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For soybean rust, three Brazilian studies used weather-based models, which were linked to a long series of historical weather and crop models, to predict SBR risk and investigate its association with the ENSO phases (Del Ponte et al 2011;Radons et al 2021;Fattori et al 2021). The effect of SST in the El Niño 3.4 region on the SBR final seasonal prevalence (cumulative number of reports) was investigated for two states: Paraná and Mato Grosso during 11 growing seasons (2004 to 2014) (Minchio et al 2018).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As estratégias de manejo recomendadas para o controle da doença compreendem a adoção de medidas conjuntas, que incluem a utilização de cultivares de ciclo precoce e semeadura no início da época recomendada, vazio sanitário e eliminação de plantas de soja voluntárias na entressafra (21), monitoramento da lavoura através de coletores e armadilhas (5), uso de cultivares com genes de resistência e controle químico, com a aplicação de fungicidas via foliar (16).…”
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