Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane Production at Sites in Australia, Brazil and South Africa Using the Canegro Model

Singels, A.; Jones, Matthew R.; Marin, Fábio Ricardo; Ruane, Alexander C.; Thorburn, Peter J.

doi:10.1007/s12355-013-0274-1

Cited by 76 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Both Table 3 and Figure 5 show variation (uncertainty) in future arising from differences in GCM projections. Simulated cane yields increased under all future scenarios, at all sites; this is consistent with the findings of Knox et al (2010), Marin et al (2012), Schulze and Kunz (2010) and Singels et al (2013). The relative increases were greatest at La Mercy (irrigated: 14 %; rainfed: 15 %), and smallest at Malelane (11 %).…”

Section: Weather Datasupporting

confidence: 86%

“…The study by Singels et al (2013) highlighted possible shortcomings in the methodology that apply here as well. Future assessments may find greater adherence to historical conditions by utilising the agricultural-impacts oriented version of the MERRA dataset for gap-filling (AgMERRA; Ruane et al, 2014).…”

Section: Methodology Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model was modified to be responsive to [CO 2 ] by reducing transpiration rates with increasing [CO 2 ] (as described by Singels et al, 2013). No direct effect on photosynthesis of [CO 2 ] was simulated.…”

Section: Crop Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Marin et al (2012) reported a 24% increase in rainfed sugarcane yields, and a 34% increase in water use efficiency in south-eastern Brazil (2100s). Singels et al (2013) reported increases in future (2100s) crop water use of 1 to 8%, and cane yield increases of 4 to 20% for sites in SA, Australia and Brazil (2100s), while sucrose yield responses varied widely (between -33% and +13%). Schulze and Kunz (2010) reported likely increases in irrigation demand of 10-20% on average across the country for the end-ofcentury time period, although with considerable spatial variation: some hinterland catchments in the KwaZulu-Natal province in particular indicating either no change or reduced irrigation demand in the order of 0-10%, because of increased projected rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa

Jones

Singels

Ruane

2015

Agricultural Systems

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Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. 2Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO 2 concentration [CO 2 ] of 734 ppm (A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model.Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated.Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimise productivity.Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work.Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

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Section: Weather Datasupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Methodology Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Crop Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa

Jones

Singels

Ruane

2015

Agricultural Systems

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“…The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al, 2013a) is conducting a wide range of climate-impacts-oriented activities focusing on crop and livestock models at the local level (e.g., Asseng et al, 2013;Singels et al, 2013;Bassu et al, 2014;Li et al, 2014;Ruane et al, 2014b) and on a global grid (Rosenzweig et al, 2013b), regional assessments of food security (Rosenzweig et al, 2012), and global economic impacts (e.g., Nelson et al, 2013;von Lampe et al, 2014). Related regional research networks such as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and MACSUR (Modeling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security; Rötter et al, 2013) are dealing with similar tasks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate forcing datasets for agricultural modeling: Merged products for gap-filling and historical climate series estimation

Ruane

Goldberg

Chryssanthacopoulos

2015

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

350

253

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a b s t r a c tThe AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Interrow spacing and sugarcane yield in a diversity of climates: A major review

2020

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The reduction of sugarcane interrow spacing has the potential to increase crop yield, but research results concerning sugarcane cultivation in Brazil and worldwide remain inconclusive. Therefore, the objective of this review was to evaluate the influence of interrow spacing on the stalk fresh yield (SFY) of sugarcane and to identify the most appropriate interrow spacing in different climates and water regimes (irrigated or rainfed). In this study, a broad review of published studies was conducted to gather experimental data and evaluate the influence of interrow spacing on sugarcane SFY. A total of 28 relevant studies was used, including 170 field experiments in nine countries. Field experimental data were grouped on the basis of similarity of climate, using hierarchical cluster analysis for rainfed and irrigated experiments. Analysis of variance was used to evaluate whether there was a variation between the SFY values, and Tukey tests were applied to compare the SFY means for each interrow spacing. The results indicated that SFY significantly increased as interrow spacing was reduced. Interrow spacing of 90 cm had the greatest SFY (p < .01) for both irrigated and rainfed treatments. The lowest average SFY values were among spacings from 150 to 180 cm, which are most frequently used in the largest-producing countries, depending on the climate zone and water regime. Despite the increase in yield, the use of narrower interrow spacing is limited mainly due to the soil compaction and sugarcane stool damage caused by the currently used tillage and harvesting machines.

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Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane Production at Sites in Australia, Brazil and South Africa Using the Canegro Model

Cited by 76 publications

References 13 publications

Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa

Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa

Climate forcing datasets for agricultural modeling: Merged products for gap-filling and historical climate series estimation

Interrow spacing and sugarcane yield in a diversity of climates: A major review

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