Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

Abstract

Global climate change has become a major threat to biodiversity, posing severe challenges to species conservation. This is particularly true for species such as Horsfieldia tetratepala that have extremely small populations in the wild. Little is known about the species distribution of H. tetratepala in the current climate, as well as how that will change with potential future climates. The key environmental factors that influence its expansion, especially its habitat sustainability and its potential to adapt to climate change, are also unknown, though such information is vital for the protection of this endangered species. Based on six climate factors and 25 species distribution points, this study used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution for H. tetratepala in three periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s), and to investigate the changes in distribution patterns and the main environmental factors affecting species distribution. The modeling results show that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting H. tetratepala were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio_18) and temperature seasonality (Bio_4). The suitable areas for H. tetratepala will gradually be lost in Yunnan but will be generally offset in the northeastward direction, expanding in Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan provinces under the future climate conditions. Therefore, we recommend protecting the habitats of H. tetratepala in Yunnan and strengthening the in-depth species investigation and monitoring in areas (Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan) where no related reports of H. tetratepala have been reported. The results improve our understanding of this species’ response under the changing climate and benefit strategies for its conservation.

Spatio-Temporal Changes and Habitats of Rare and Endangered Species in Yunnan Province Based on MaxEnt Model

“…The three factors that have great influence are the precipitation factor, the topographic factor, and the normalized vegetation index. This result is also consistent with many previous studies [44,83,84]. In particular, in Singh's study of India, which is adjacent to Yunnan, the most important factor affecting vegetation distribution is precipitation, which is consistent with our results [85].…”

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“…A similar pattern was also reported for the two endemic species, Rosa arabica and Primula boveana (Abdelaal et al, 2019;Abdelaal et al, 2020a). Range contraction was also predicted for several species in mountain areas and related arid environments, for example, Nepeta binaloudensis in Iran (Erfanian et al, 2021), Tilia species in Turkey (Canturk and Kulac, 2021), and Horsfieldia tetratepala in China (Cai et al, 2022). Range-restricted and mountain-top species respond differently to climate change, either through range contraction or shifting their range to higher elevations.…”

Population status, habitat preferences and predictive current and future distributions of three endangered Silene species under changing climate

“…A similar pattern was also reported for the two endemic species, Rosa arabica and Primula boveana ( Abdelaal et al., 2019 ; Abdelaal et al., 2020a ). Range contraction was also predicted for several species in mountain areas and related arid environments, for example, Nepeta binaloudensis in Iran ( Erfanian et al., 2021 ), Tilia species in Turkey ( Canturk and Kulaç, 2021 ), and Horsfieldia tetratepala in China ( Cai et al., 2022 ). Range-restricted and mountain-top species respond differently to climate change, either through range contraction or shifting their range to higher elevations.…”