Predicting Commercial Land Requirements in New Cities using Big Data Analysis of Expenditure and Traffic Data

Abstract

In developing new cities in Korea, inaccurate land demand forecasts can cause social problems such as the stagnation of commercial areas and large-scale unsold commercial facilities. In particular, stagnation of commercial areas and large-scale unsold commercial facilities in new cities reduce the attractiveness of the entire commercial area of new cities, causing great damage to the selfemployed in the area. In Korea, more than 10 new cities were created from the 1980s to the early 2000s, but the stagnation of commercial space in the new city is considered a problem due to the prediction of demand for commercial land. This study aims to estimate the appropriate purchasing power of new cities based on the actual consumption expenditure and transportation demand of new cities, and to estimate the appropriate gross commercial area. The subjects of the study are five new cities in the Seoul metropolitan area, including Byeonae, Wirye, Misa, Okjeong, and Dasan. This study uses secondary data for analysis, including card usage data and traffic OD data for each new city. As a result of the analysis, the amount of consumption or purchasing power spent in the new cities was estimated to be around KRW 200 billion to KRW 300 billion. Considering the average annual sales per square meter of commercial facilities in Gyeonggi-do, the estimated total commercial area per new city was approximately 50,000 to 70,000 square meters. When compared with the actual total commercial area supplied to each new city, the difference ranged from 3.8 to 5.5 times. These findings have important implications for the oft-cited oversupply of commercial space in new cities and the resulting unsold and frequent closures. The results of this study will provide implications for the planning and supply of appropriate commercial land in subsequent development projects such as the third new city.