Predicting COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy from Neutralizing Antibody Levels

Abstract

Recent studies using data accrued from global SARS-CoV-2 vaccination efforts have demonstrated that breakthrough infections are correlated with levels of neutralizing antibodies. The decrease in neutralizing antibody titers of vaccinated individuals over time, combined with the emergence of more infectious variants of concern has resulted in waning vaccine efficacy against infection and a rise in breakthrough infections. Here we use a combination of neutralizing antibody measurements determined by a high throughput surrogate viral neutralization test (sVNT) together with published data from vaccine clinical trials and comparative plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) between SARS-CoV-2 variants to develop a model for vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic infection. Vaccine efficacy estimates using this model show good concordance with real world data from the US and Israel. Our work demonstrates that appropriately calibrated neutralizing antibody measurements determined by high throughput sVNT can be used to provide a semi-quantitative estimate of protection against infection. Given the highly variable antibody levels among the vaccinated population, this model may be of use in identification of individuals with an elevated risk of breakthrough infections.

A hnRNPA2B1 agonist effectively inhibits HBV and SARS-CoV-2 omicronin vivo

“…Despite population-wide vaccination campaigns in many countries, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to disseminate globally more than 2 years since the pandemic started due to the high prevalence of re-infection and vaccine-breakthrough infections among individuals with waning neutralizing antibody titers ( Abedi et al 2021 ; Gardner and Kilpatrick 2021 ). The recently emerged omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has rapidly replaced the Delta variant as the predominant circulating variant with higher transmissibility and immune evasiveness, which considerably compromise the authorized monoclonal antibodies in the market.…”

Waning of Humoral Immunity and the Influencing Factors after BNT162b2 Vaccination: A Cohort Study with a Latent Growth Curve Model in Fukushima

“…However, the titers of immunoglobulin G (IgG) against the spike (S) protein and the neutralizing antibody activity wane over time post-vaccination [5,6]. Specifically, the number of infected people starts to increase a few months after the second dose of the vaccine [7][8][9][10]. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended a third COVID-19 vaccine dose for immunocompromised individuals [11].…”

Waning of humoral immunity and affecting factors after BNT162b2 vaccination: a cohort study with latent growth curve model in Fukushima

“…However, the titers of the immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody against the spike (S) protein and the neutralizing antibody activity wane over time post vaccination [5,6] . Speci cally, the number of infected people starts to increase a few months after the second dose of the vaccine [7][8][9][10] . In particular, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended a third COVID-19 vaccine dose in immunocompromised individuals [11] ; however, due to shortage of vaccine supply and increasing vaccine hesitancy, few countries have completed the booster vaccination against COVID-19 [12][13][14] .…”