Predicting developmental outcomes at school entry using a multiple-risk model: Four American communities.

Abstract

The contributions of different risk factors in predicting children's psychological and academic outcomes at the end of 1st grade were examined. Using a regression model, levels of ecobehavioral risk were assessed in the following order: specific demographics, broad demographics, family psychosocial status, mother's depressive symptoms, and neighborhood quality. Participants were 337 families from 4 American communities. Predictor variables were assessed in kindergarten, and teacher, parent, and child outcomes (behavioral and academic) were assessed at the end of 1st grade. Results indicated that (a) each level of analysis contributed to prediction of most outcomes, (b) 18%-29% of the variance was predicted in outcomes, (c) a common set of predictors predicted numerous outcomes, (d) ethnicity showed little unique prediction, and (e) the quality of the neighborhood showed small but unique prediction to externalizing problems.From an ecological perspective (Bronfenbrenner, 1979), early childhood development occurs within the multiple contexts of the home, the school, and the neighborhood, and aspects of these environments can contribute to the development of adjustment problems. Thus, the study of adjustment must be embedded in analyses of the contextual risks to which children are exposed (Sameroff & Seifer, 1990). Risk factors such as low socioeconomic status (SES); single-parent family status; ethnic minority status; family history of psychological, substance use, and legal problems; marital discord; and lack of social support have all been shown to be related to an increased likelihood of psychological problems in children (Liaw & Brooks-Gunn, 1994;Sameroff, Seifer, Barocas, Zax, & Greenspan, 1987; Yoshikawa, 1994).Not all children raised in such contexts develop adjustment problems, however (Cowen et al., 1992), and no one factor alone accounts for children's adjustment problems (Sameroff & Seifer, 1990). Studies of multiple risk factors indicate that an increase in the number of risk factors experienced by a child results in an increased likelihood of that child developing adjustment NIH-PA Author ManuscriptNIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript problems (Rutter, 1979). Therefore, in predicting children's psychological adjustment, it is important to consider the effects of multiple risk factors within a theoretical model. Indeed, all risk factors do not have equivalent meaning, and they may represent varying levels of conceptualization. In the present study, the combined effects of demographic, family psychosocial, and neighborhood risk factors on children's development were examined in families from four American communities. The present study involved a test of the hierarchical and unique contributions of three major dimensions of social context on the behavioral, academic, and psychological outcomes of a culturally and geographically diverse combination of child populations. Demographic Risk FactorsLow family SES places children at risk. Children in low-SES families demonstrate higher l...

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