Predicting different grades in different ways for selective admission: disentangling the first-year grade point average

Steenman, S.C.; Bakker, Wieger; Tartwijk, J.W.F. van

doi:10.1080/03075079.2014.970631

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Moreover, different students often graduate in different subjects from secondary school, which means that measures upon which high school GPA is calculated differ between students. For this reason, the validity of high school GPA can be questioned even more (Steenman, Bakker, and van Tartwijk 2016). This is problematic because different subjects may draw upon divergent skills and knowledge.…”

Section: How To Measure Prior Achievementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Disentangling the predictive validity of high school grades for academic success in university

Vulperhorst

Lutz

Kleijn

et al. 2017

Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education

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To refine selective admission models, we investigate which measure of prior achievement has the best predictive validity for academic success in university. We compare the predictive validity of three core high school subjects to the predictive validity of high school grade point average (GPA) for academic achievement in a liberal arts university programme. Predictive validity is compared between the Dutch pre-university (VWO) and the International Baccalaureate (IB) diploma. Moreover, we study how final GPA is predicted by prior achievement after students complete their first year. Path models were separately run for VWO (n = 314) and IB (n = 113) graduates. For VWO graduates, high school GPA explained more variance than core subject grades in first-year GPA and final GPA. For IB graduates, we found the opposite. Subsequent path models showed that after students' completion of the first year, final GPA is best predicted by a combination of first-year GPA and high school GPA. Based on our small-scale results, we cautiously challenge the use of high school GPA as the norm for measuring prior achievement. Which measure of prior achievement best predicts academic success in university may depend on the diploma students enter with.

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Section: How To Measure Prior Achievementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prior achievement on the other hand is almost exclusively operationalised as high school GPA (e.g. Cliffordson 2008;Steenman, Bakker, and van Tartwijk 2016;Van Ooijen-Van der Linden et al 2016). Often, high school GPA is the only factor used in merit-based selection procedures (Pitman 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling the predictive validity of high school grades for academic success in university

Vulperhorst

Lutz

Kleijn

et al. 2017

Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education

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“…Most of the earlier research has found national exams to be an important predictor of academic success in Higher Education (Horowitz & Spector, ; Smith & White, ; Smith & Naylor, ). Regarding secondary school internal average score, the answer is generally the same (DesJardins, Ahlburg, & McCall, ) on timely graduation (Cassidy, ; Steenman, Bakker, & van Tartwijk, ; Thiele, Singleton, Pope, & Stanistreet, ) on university scores. However, not much research has been devoted to compare the relative relevance of secondary school internal average score and scores on national exams, the main topic of this paper.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictors of student success in Higher Education: Secondary school internal scores versus national exams

Cerdeira

Nunes

Reis

et al. 2018

Higher Education Quarterly

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In many countries entrance to Higher Education is determined by the performance of students in secondary school and/or the scores obtained in national exams. The relative weight of these two scores on the admission decision is a relevant policy topic, given its implication on who is admitted to university. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relative predictive power of these two measures on the academic performance of students in Higher Education. It makes use of a dataset of Bachelor students from Portuguese Higher Education institutions with detailed information about their characteristics and past achievement results. The measure of academic achievement considered is the Bachelor's final average score. The main finding is that the scores given by teachers in secondary school are better predictors of subsequent performance than the access exam scores. The relevance of factors like working status, social support and gender vary with the reputation of the degree and the type of Higher Education institution, university versus polytechnic. A noteworthy result is that the added predictive contribution of parents' education is always negligible when past success measures are already taken into account.

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“…Signal detection theory is applicable wherever criteria are applied in decision-making regardless of the specific context and goals, for example, in validating criteria of multiple mini interviews (Patterson et al 2016). Following up on Shulruf, Hattie, and Tumen (2008), Shulruf et al (2011) andSteenman, Bakker, andvan Tartwijk (2014), future application of signal detection theory might be informative on comparisons of selection outcomes given different operationalisations of SSGPA and academic achievement. The relatively small proportion of unsuccessful students does mean that all interpretations are preliminary and awaiting replication with a larger sample.…”

Section: Implementation Of Signal Detection Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Signal detection theory as a tool for successful student selection

Linden

Smagt

Woertman

et al. 2016

Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education

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Prediction accuracy of academic achievement for admission purposes requires adequate sensitivity and specificity of admission tools, yet the available information on the validity and predictive power of admission tools is largely based on studies using correlational and regression statistics. The goal of this study was to explore signal detection theory as a tool to extend the available information; signal detection theory allows for comparisons of selection outcomes on both group and individual levels and the development of tailor-made criteria for specific programmes and admission goals. We investigated who would or would not have been admitted applying specific criteria for each of three common admission tools, how many admitted students would fail and how many applicants who would have been successful would be rejected. Both comparisons at an individual level and the receiver operating characteristic curves at a group level revealed that scores obtained in a programme-specific matching programme and non-cognitive factors appear more valuable than regression statistics suggest when it comes to admitting applicants who will become successful students. Signal detection theory allows not only for admission-goal-specific and programme-specific fine-tuning of the content of admission tools, it also informs about the effects of criteria and thus allows the setting of criteria.

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Predicting different grades in different ways for selective admission: disentangling the first-year grade point average

Cited by 19 publications

References 26 publications

Disentangling the predictive validity of high school grades for academic success in university

Disentangling the predictive validity of high school grades for academic success in university

Predictors of student success in Higher Education: Secondary school internal scores versus national exams

Signal detection theory as a tool for successful student selection

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