2024
DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2023-0096
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Predicting favourable streams for anadromous salmon spawning and natal rearing under climate change

Josephine C. Iacarella,
J. Daniel Weller

Abstract: Successful management of imperiled anadromous salmon stocks requires understanding how salmon will respond to a changing climate across their extensive ranges. Though largely unused for anadromous salmon to date, Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) can provide a strong foundation for estimating where and how much habitat will likely remain favourable. We applied a comprehensive suite of ENM statistical approaches to five Pacific salmon species, focusing on freshwater spawning and natal rearing habitat as critica… Show more

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“…Future responses of salmon to climate change will be diverse and complicated by lake‐specific geomorphology, which can differentially filter regional climate to shape habitat conditions that are unique to each population. Air temperatures are predicted to increase at northern latitudes across seasons over the next century (Woolway et al., 2021), which inevitably will create opportunities and constraints for salmon during freshwater rearing (Iacarella & Weller, 2023). Growth likely will increase for fishes in lakes where thermal environments currently are cooler than their optimum, yet decrease for those that are at or above their optimum (Magnuson et al., 1997); an acceleration of glacier melt under warming temperatures may further suppress fish growth, at least for some populations over the near term.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Future responses of salmon to climate change will be diverse and complicated by lake‐specific geomorphology, which can differentially filter regional climate to shape habitat conditions that are unique to each population. Air temperatures are predicted to increase at northern latitudes across seasons over the next century (Woolway et al., 2021), which inevitably will create opportunities and constraints for salmon during freshwater rearing (Iacarella & Weller, 2023). Growth likely will increase for fishes in lakes where thermal environments currently are cooler than their optimum, yet decrease for those that are at or above their optimum (Magnuson et al., 1997); an acceleration of glacier melt under warming temperatures may further suppress fish growth, at least for some populations over the near term.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%