Predicting financial distress of companies: revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA® models

Altman, Edward I.

doi:10.4337/9780857936097.00027

Cited by 581 publications

(761 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Altman tahun 1968 merupakan penelitian awal yang mengkaji pemanfaatan analisis rasio keuangan sebagai alat untuk memprediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan (Altman, 2000). Perusahaan manufaktur yang diprediksi mengalami kebangkrutan dapat dialami oleh kelompok perusahaan manufaktur kecil, maupun perusahaan manufaktur besar (Ramadhani & Lukviarman, 2009).…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Model Altman Z-Score Untuk Memprediksi Financial Distress : Studi Empiris Pada Industri Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Martha

Mardhatillah²,

Zus³

2017

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Financial distress is the financial difficulties experience by a company before the company become bankruptcy (Mafiroh, 2016 PENDAHULUANPerusahaan merupakan suatu organisasi yang tujuan utamanya mendapatkan laba semaksimal mungkin, tetapi untuk mendapatkannya tentu banyak Kendala yang dihadapi oleh perusahaan baik kendala dari luar maupun dari dalam. Tugas manajemen perusahaan adalah menentukan strategi agar perusahaan tidak mengalami penurunan profit. Apabila perusahaan terus menerus mengalami penurunan profit maka perusahaan akan segera mengalami kesulitan keuangan atau financial distress.Suatu perusahaan dikategorikan sedang mengalami kesulitan keuangan ketika perusahaan tersebut memiliki kinerja yang menunjukkan laba operasi negatif, laba bersih negatif, nilai buku ekuitas negatif, dan perusahaan melakukan penggabungan usaha (Brahmana, 2007). Rasio analisis tradisional berfokus pada profitabilitas, solvency dan likuiditas. Perusahaan yang mengalami kerugian, tidak dapat membayar kewajiban atau tidak likuid mungkin memerlukan restrukturisasi. Kesalahan prediksi terhadap kelangsungan operasi perusahaan dimasa yang akan datang, salah satunya adalah risiko kehilangan pendapatan atau investasi yang telah ditanamkan pada perusahaan tersebut (Hanifah & Purwanto, 2013).Industri manufaktur di Indonesia semakin memburuk sejak terjadinya krisis ekonomi global sejak tahun 2008 (Ramadhani & Lukviarman, 2009). Perusahaan manufaktur merupakan industri yang dalam kegiatannya mengandalkan modal dari

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Model Altman Z-Score Untuk Memprediksi Financial Distress : Studi Empiris Pada Industri Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Martha

Mardhatillah²,

Zus³

2017

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“…Ohlson 1980, Altman 2000, Becchetti and Sierra 2003, Pompe and Bilderbeek 2005, the public sector has failed to draw such a great attention from researchers. Consequently, the academic literature in the field is primarily directed towards the private sector both in terms of theoretical and empirical approaches.…”

Section: Overview Of the Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Risk of Encountering Financial Difficulties by the Example of Estonian Municipalities

Lohk¹,

Siimann²

2016

Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Accounting, Auditing, and Taxation (ICAAT 2016)

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The objective of the study is to determine the financial and non-financial indicators which describe the financial difficulties encountered by Estonian municipalities and to prepare a model to predict the risk of encountering financial difficulties. In order to achieve the objective, the study employs multidimensional statistical analysis methods: discriminant analysis and logit analysis. The predictive model is based on the financial and non-financial indicators of Estonian municipalities for the years 2004-2014 and the risk of encountering financial difficulties is defined as the value of the variable primary operating outcome to depreciation of tangible fixed assets of the population over the years 2011-2014. The classification accuracy of the discriminant model comprising seven independent variables found as a result of the analysis is 88% and the same indicator for the logit model is 87%. The variable with the highest descriptive capacity in predicting the risk of encountering financial difficulties is the ratio of primary operating outcome to the primary operating revenues. The methods of the study and the predictive model prepared make a significant contribution to the development of this field of study in Estonia and are applicable also to other countries where municipalities operate under similar financial management principles.

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“…He found that "72 percent correct assignment is evidence that bankruptcy can be predicted two years prior to the event (Altman, 2000)".…”

Section: Altman's Z Scorementioning

confidence: 99%

Retail Bankruptcy Prediction

Pang

Kogel

2013

American Journal of Economics and Business Administration

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This study reintroduces the famous discriminant functions from Edward Altman and Begley, Ming and Watts (BMW) that were used to predict bankrupts. We will formulate three new discriminant functions which differ from Altman's and BMW's re-estimated Altman model. Altman's models as well as Begley, Ming and Watts's re-estimated Altman model apply to publicly traded industries, whereas the new models formulated in this study are based on retail companies. The three new functions will provide better predictions on retail bankruptcy and they will minimize the chance of misclassifications.

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Predicting financial distress of companies: revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA® models

Cited by 581 publications

References 5 publications

Model Altman Z-Score Untuk Memprediksi Financial Distress : Studi Empiris Pada Industri Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Model Altman Z-Score Untuk Memprediksi Financial Distress : Studi Empiris Pada Industri Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Predicting the Risk of Encountering Financial Difficulties by the Example of Estonian Municipalities

Retail Bankruptcy Prediction

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