Predicting future citation behavior

Burrell, Quentin L.

doi:10.1002/asi.10207

Cited by 76 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Glänzel and Schoepflin (1994) 7 used a modified cumulative advantage model, where the rate of citing is proportional to the product of the number of accumulated citations and some factor, which decays with age. Burrell (2003), who modeled citation process as a non-homogeneous Poisson process had to postulate some obsolescence distribution function.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A mathematical theory of citing

Simkin

Roychowdhury

2007

J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci.

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Recently we proposed a model, in which when a scientist writes a manuscript, he picks up several random papers, cites them and also copies a fraction of their references. The model was stimulated by our finding that a majority of scientific citations are copied from the lists of references used in other papers. It accounted quantitatively for several properties of empirically observed distribution of citations. However, important features, such as power-law distributions of citations to papers published during the same year and the fact that the average rate of citing decreases with aging of a paper, were not accounted for by that model. Here we propose a modified model: when a scientist writes a manuscript, he picks up several random recent papers, cites them and also copies some of their references. The difference with the original model is the word recent. We solve the model using methods of the theory of branching processes, and find that it can explain the aforementioned features of citation distribution, which our original model couldn't account for. The model can also explain "sleeping beauties in science", i.e., papers that are little cited for a decade or so, and later "awake" and get a lot of citations. Although much can be understood from purely random models, we find that to obtain a good quantitative agreement with empirical citation data one must introduce Darwinian fitness parameter for the papers.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In bibliometrics literature a similar parameter is sometimes called latent rate of acquiring citations (Burrell, 2003). While this parameter can depend on factors other than the intrinsic quality of the paper, the fitness is the only channel through which the quality can enter our model.…”

Section: Scientific Darwinismmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical theory of citing

Simkin

Roychowdhury

2007

J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci.

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“…Perhaps the most usual is to conceptualise the process as basically random from year to year but with some underlying mean (λ) and use the Poisson distribution. There can then be two extensions -the move from a single paper to a collection of papers with differing mean rates (Burrell, 2001), and the incorporation of obsolescence in the rate of citations (Burrell, 2002;Burrell, 2003).…”

Section: Citation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of theory and practice in scientometrics

Mingers

Leydesdorff

2015

European Journal of Operational Research

714

385

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Scientometrics is the study of the quantitative aspects of the process of science as a communication system. It is centrally, but not only, concerned with the analysis of citations in the academic literature.In recent years it has come to play a major role in the measurement and evaluation of research performance. In this review we consider: the historical development of scientometrics, sources of citation data, citation metrics and the "laws" of scientometrics, normalisation, journal impact factors and other journal metrics, visualising and mapping science, evaluation and policy, and future developments.

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“…To what extent can collections of papers (e.g., all from one journal) be modelled by the same obsolescence functions? This is of theoretical interest since Burrell (2002;2003) assumed this was the case in developing a Poisson-gamma model for the process of citation generation, and Mingers and Burrell (2005) fitted a cumulative gamma distribution to empirical data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the dynamics of journal citations: Modelling with s-curves

Mingers

2008

Journal of the Operational Research Society

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This paper reports on an exploratory analysis of the behaviour of citations, i.e., pattern of obsolescence, for management science papers over a fourteen year period. It addresses three questions: i) can collections of papers from the same journal all be modelled using the same obsolescence function? ii) Can we identify specific patterns of behaviour such as "sleeping beauties" or "shooting stars"? iii) Can we predict the number of future citations from the pattern of behaviour in the first few years? Over 600 papers published in six leading journals are analysed using a variety of s-curves.

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Predicting future citation behavior

Cited by 76 publications

References 21 publications

A mathematical theory of citing

A mathematical theory of citing

A review of theory and practice in scientometrics

Exploring the dynamics of journal citations: Modelling with s-curves

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