Predicting global habitat suitability for Corbicula fluminea using species distribution models: The importance of different environmental datasets

Gama, Mafalda; Crespo, Daniel; Dolbeth, Marina; Anastácio, Pedro M.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.06.001

Cited by 80 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Whilst all of these explanations are feasible, however, there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the mechanistic basis by which species alter the functioning of an ecosystem, despite the well‐known effects of NIS on the structure of communities and biodiversity (e.g., Ilarri et al., ; Phelps, ). This is particularly concerning, given that biological invasions are expected to rise and ecological niches may become favorable for invasive species under climate change (Crespo, Leston, et al., ; Gama, Crespo, Dolbeth, & Anastácio, ; Montoya & Raffaelli, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological consequences of invasion across the freshwater–marine transition in a warming world

Crespo

Solan

Leston

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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The freshwater–marine transition that characterizes an estuarine system can provide multiple entry options for invading species, yet the relative importance of this gradient in determining the functional contribution of invading species has received little attention. The ecological consequences of species invasion are routinely evaluated within a freshwater versus marine context, even though many invasive species can inhabit a wide range of salinities. We investigate the functional consequences of different sizes of Corbicula fluminea—an invasive species able to adapt to a wide range of temperatures and salinity—across the freshwater–marine transition in the presence versus absence of warming. Specifically, we characterize how C. fluminea affect fluid and particle transport, important processes in mediating nutrient cycling (NH 4‐N, NO 3‐N, PO 4‐P). Results showed that sediment particle reworking (bioturbation) tends to be influenced by size and to a lesser extent, temperature and salinity; nutrient concentrations are influenced by different interactions between all variables (salinity, temperature, and size class). Our findings demonstrate the highly context‐dependent nature of the ecosystem consequences of invasion and highlight the potential for species to simultaneously occupy multiple components of an ecosystem. Recognizing of this aspect of invasibility is fundamental to management and conservation efforts, particularly as freshwater and marine systems tend to be compartmentalized rather than be treated as a contiguous unit. We conclude that more comprehensive appreciation of the distribution of invasive species across adjacent habitats and different seasons is urgently needed to allow the true extent of biological introductions, and their ecological consequences, to be fully realized.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological consequences of invasion across the freshwater–marine transition in a warming world

Crespo

Solan

Leston

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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“…We removed one of each pair of highly correlated ( r > .7) (Dormann et al., ) environmental variables to avoid collinearity among predictors (Gama, Crespo, Dolbeth, & Anastácio, ). We made the choices between variables based on the results of a species‐specific literature search.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We removed one of each pair of highly correlated (r > .7) (Dormann et al, 2013) environmental variables to avoid collinearity among predictors (Gama, Crespo, Dolbeth, & Anastácio, 2015).…”

Section: Species Distribution Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change

Salas

Valdez

Michel³

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Identifying the factors predicting the high‐elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300–4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km2) and 63.2% (7,219 km2) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km2) at much higher elevations (4,500–6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.

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“…An ensemble forecasting approach using the BIOMOD2 package (Thuiller, ) was used in R software (version: 2.14.0; R Development Core Team, ), similar to the one used in Gama, Crespo, Dolbeth, and Anastácio (), to model the potential ecological niche of C. fluminea ( sensu Guisan & Thuiller, ). Ensemble forecasting is based on the knowledge that by using several modelling techniques and calculating a measure of central tendency (mean or median), the range of projections can be evaluated and a more reliable prediction can be made.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble forecasting of Corbicula fluminea worldwide distribution: Projections of the impact of climate change

Gama

Crespo

Dolbeth

et al. 2017

Aquatic Conservation

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1. Global biodiversity is at risk owing to climate change, and freshwater ecosystems are expected to suffer the most. In recent years niche-based models (NBMs) have been used to predict species distribution and are an important tool for conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems. In this work, the current and future climatic suitability areas of the invasive species Corbicula fluminea, which has known adverse ecological and economic impacts, were investigated.2. The species distribution modelling was based on nine algorithms in BIOMOD2, summarized in an ensemble forecasting approach. To model the species distribution, eight climatic parameters related to temperature and precipitation variables were considered. Three time frames (current, 2050 and 2070) were modelled using four increasing CO 2 emission scenarios.3. The performance of individual models was excellent according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and good to excellent according to true skill statistics (TSS). Annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month and mean temperature of the coldest quarter were the most important variables predicting C. fluminea occurrence. Of the total continental area, 6.6% was predicted to be suitable for C. fluminea in current conditions. 4. In the future, suitable area will increase from the current value of 6.6% to values from 9.4% to 12.6%, according to the 2050 projections and up to 12.7% in 2070 in high emission scenarios. 5. Overall, the results indicate that climate change will favour the expansion of C. fluminea into new river basins, especially at higher latitudes, and that future climatic scenarios may double the suitable area for Corbicula fluminea.

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Predicting global habitat suitability for Corbicula fluminea using species distribution models: The importance of different environmental datasets

Cited by 80 publications

References 45 publications

Ecological consequences of invasion across the freshwater–marine transition in a warming world

Ecological consequences of invasion across the freshwater–marine transition in a warming world

Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change

Ensemble forecasting of Corbicula fluminea worldwide distribution: Projections of the impact of climate change

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