Predicting habitat suitability for the endemic mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) in Ethiopia

Abstract

The use of statistical models to predict species distributions and suitable habitat has become an essential tool for wildlife management and conservation planning. Models have been especially useful with rare and endangered wildlife species. One such species is the mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), a spiral-horned antelope endemic to the Ethiopian highlands. The full range of the species has never been adequately defined and recent discoveries of new populations suggest that others may exist undetected. To identify potential mountain nyala occurrences, we used classification tree analysis to predict suitable habitat using 76 climatic, topographical and vegetative variables. Three model evaluation methods showed a strong performance of the final model with an overall accuracy of 90%, Cohen's maximised κ of 0.80 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.89. Minimum temperature and maximum precipitation generally had the greatest predictive contributions to suitable mountain nyala habitat. The predicted habitat covered an area of 39378 km 2 , with the majority occurring in remote forests on the southern escarpment of the Bale Mountains. Other areas within the predicted range may be too impacted by human and livestock populations to support mountain nyala; however, the model will be useful in directing future surveys for new populations while offering clues to the species historical range.

Do Consumers Prefer Wild, Farmed Bear Bile or Substitutes?

“…Since 2000, several additional mountain nyala populations have been identified throughout the Bale Mountains indicating that both its population and range was larger than previously thought [4,5]. However, human populations in Ethiopia and the Bale Mountains are accelerating at extraordinary rates, and the reduction and degradation of the mountain nyala's habitats is evident [6][7][8]. Although new studies of the mountain nyala are emerging, there remain large information gaps that restrict implementation of effective management and conservation strategies.…”

“…Although new studies of the mountain nyala are emerging, there remain large information gaps that restrict implementation of effective management and conservation strategies. Recent studies have largely focused on needed landscape-level analyses related to population, geographic range, available habitat and human impacts [5,8,9]. Only a few demographic studies have been conducted for the mountain nyala; the first over 45 years ago [2], and two recently in a small isolated population in BMNP [10,11].…”

Review on Problems, Prospects and Economic Contribution of Wildlife Management and Ecotourism in Ethiopia

“…The government of Ethiopia also has recognized development and promotion of ecotourism and provided consultancy services for a number of potential developers of ecotourism sites [38]. Bishangari Eco-Lodge located at Eastern of Langano Lake in Oromia Region and Village Ethiopia located at Afar Region (Bilen) is examples of these private ecotourism developments in Ethiopia [26]. There are some promising community based ecotourism initiatives like Adaba-Dodola, which is financially and technically supported by the German Agency of Technical Cooperation or GTZ (now GIZ) on the northern slopes of the Bali Mountains in Oromia National Regional State and Semien Mountain (a pilot ecotourism project on SMNP) [39].…”

“…Habitat destruction, fragmentation, poaching, and lack of proper management are among the various problems that are decimating or threatening the quality and quantity of wild biodiversities in Ethiopia [25]. The major components of habitat destruction and disturbance in Ethiopia are settlement in and around the Sanctuary, overstocking livestock, frequent fire and bush encroachment, tree cutting for fuel, sale and construction of huts [26]. The conservation of natural resources in National Parks, Sanctuaries and nature reserves has always been entangled in multitude of problems.…”

Bringing Modeling to the Masses: A Web Based System to Predict Potential Species Distributions

“…Predicting species current and potential distributions is critical to the effective management of invasive species [1], conservation of threatened and endangered species [2][3][4], and protection of native species and habitats [5]. Accurate predictive models can guide field surveys [6,7], define monitoring priorities [8], and help direct conservation and restoration efforts at local, regional, and national scales [9].…”