Predicting high‐risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation

Abstract

SummaryT h e interannual variation in malaria cases in Colombia between ~9 6 0 and 1992 shows a close association with a periodic climatic phenomenon known as El Niiio Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Compared with other years, malaria cases increased by ~7 . 3 % ) during a Nirio year and by 35.1% in the post-Niiio year. T h e annual total number of malaria cases is also strongly correlated ( Y = 0.62, P < 0.001) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a principal parameter of ENSO. T h e strong relation between malaria and ENSO in Colombia can be used to predict high and low-risk years for malaria with sufficient time to mobilize resources to reduce the impact of epidemics. In view of the current El Nino conditions, we anticipate an increase in malaria cases in Colombia in 1998. Further studies to elucidate the mechanisms which underlie the association are required. As Colombia has a wide range of climatic conditions, regional studies relating climate and vector ecology to malaria incidence may further improve an ENSO-based early warning system. Predicting malaria risk associated with ENSO and related climate variables may also serve as a short-term analogue for predicting longer-term effects posed by global climate change.keywords Malaria, Colombia, El Niiio, ENSO, early warning system. correspondence M. J. Bouma,

Assessing the roles of temperature, precipitation, and enso in dengue re-emergence on the Texas-Mexico border region

“…20 El Niño events represent the best analog for the impacts of increased frequency of extreme weather events. A number of studies have documented an increased incidence of malaria associated with El Niño events, [20][21][22][23][24][25] but evidence for dengue-ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) associations is equivocal. 26 Extreme weather events are also likely to facilitate the spread of dengue by disrupting water supply, sewerage and sanitation services.…”

Mercury exposure and malaria prevalence among gold miners in Pará, Brazil

“…The impacts of global and local environmental change on infectious disease has been understood mainly in terms of population density and the distribution of pathogens and their vectors 1 24 34 . For example, temporal increases in malaria incidence in Rwanda 22 and Colombia 4 have been associated with the effects of periodic El Niño events and overall surface warming on vector thermosensitivity. No studies have been conducted on the interaction of chemical pollutants and the epidemiology of infectious disease.…”

Coupling between Annual and ENSO Timescales in the Malaria: Climate Association in Colombia

“…Even though malaria is a highly complex multifactorial disease, previous studies have identified a significant association between the increase in the number of malaria cases in Colombia during the occurrence of El Niño (15)(16)(17)(18)(19). Such studies have focused on a nationwide level at yearly timescales, whereas no effort has been made to identify the El Niño malaria association at a local level in the endemic regions of rural Colombia at monthly timescales.…”