Predicting Hotspots of Human-Elephant Conflict to Inform Mitigation Strategies in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China

Abstract

Research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflict is fundamental to understanding the mechanisms underlying it and to identifying opportunities for mitigation. In the state of Xishuangbanna, containing China’s largest tropical forest, an imbalance between nature conservation and economic development has led to increasing conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), as both elephant numbers and conversion of habitable land to rubber plantations have increased over the last several decades. We analyzed government data on the compensation costs of elephant-caused damage in Xishuangbanna between 2008 and 2012 to understand the spatial and temporal patterns of conflict, in terms of their occurrence, frequency and distribution. More than 18,261 incidents were reported, including episodes involving damage to rubber trees (n = 10,999), damage to crops such as paddy, upland rice, corn, bananas and sugarcane (n = 11,020), property loss (n = 689) and attacks on humans (n = 19). The conflict data reconfirmed the presence of elephants in areas which have lacked records since the late 1990s. Zero Altered Negative Binomial models revealed that the risk of damage to crops and plantations increased with proximity to protected areas, increasing distance from roads, and lower settlement density. The patterns were constant across seasons and types of crop damaged. Damage to rubber trees was essentially incidental as elephants searched for crops to eat. A predictive map of risks revealed hotspots of conflict within and around protected areas, the last refuges for elephants in the region, and along habitat corridors connecting them. Additionally, we analyzed how mitigation efforts can best diminish the risk of conflict while minimizing financial costs and adverse biological impacts. Our analytical approach can be adopted, adjusted and expanded to other areas with historical records of human-wildlife conflict.

Predicting indirect effects of transportation network expansion on Asian elephants: Implications for environmental impact assessments

“…We included seven predictive variables in risk models based on previous studies (Chen et al, ; Wadey et al, ) and our aims. Variables included the number of roads to be crossed to reach a given road block, distance to road, a terrain roughness index, percentage of natural forest, percentage of land covered by infrastructure, edge density of natural forest, and edge density of farmland.…”

“…A claim is firstly reported to the company by villagers, and the company then assigns local adjusters hired by the company or from local forestry departments to assess the claim, using community leaders and forest rangers for reliability checks. If a claim is found to be valid, the adjusters will fill a form specifying the assessment date, household affected, wildlife involved, place name, loss type and amount, and monetary compensation (see also Huang, Li, Shi, & Jiang, and Chen et al, ). We used the relative number of verified elephant‐caused damage events across roads as a proxy for barrier effects.…”

Urban Expansion and Its Impact on the Land Use Pattern in Xishuangbanna since the Reform and Opening up of China

“…These areas are connected by the shrub and forest corridor; while this corridor was almost destroyed in the process of rubber expansion and agricultural activities around the county town of Mengla. Since the habitat and corridors of wildlife are endangered, there is an increasing trend of conflicts between humans and wild animals in recent years [67,68]. This situation sounds an alarm that local government should consider the balance between urban expansion and biodiversity conservation.…”

Balancing African Elephant Conservation with Human Well-Being in Rombo Area, Tanzania

“…Subsequently, man has frequently been in conflict with elephants in the area largely because of expanding human populations, demand for settlement, and crop cultivation lands. The management of elephant populations and their conflicts with people has been a matter of key concern and the mortality of unfenced populations remained high [12,13]. This district also is known to have rich agroecological potential, challenged by HEC [14].…”