Predicting<i>Ambystoma ordinarium</i>Habitat in Central Mexico Using Species Distribution Models

Escalera-Vázquez, Luis H.; Hernández‐Guzmán, Rafael; Soto-Rojas, Carlos; Suazo‐Ortuño, Ireri

doi:10.1655/herpetologica-d-16-00078.1

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Also, opposite to predictions, local environmental variables such as electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen in the streams explained the occupancy probability of A. ordinarium during the rainy season. Our results also showed a narrower spatial distribution of A. ordinarium than the projections proposed by IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2015) and Escalera‐Vázquez et al (2018) in the study region.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 50%

“…Furthermore, the overlapping of confidence intervals did not show differences of PAO between estimates for dry (PAO = 0.35 [95% CI = 0.33–0.41]) and rainy season (0.23 [0.21–0.38]). From the total of our 37 sampling units located within the IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2015) proposed area, A. ordinarium was detected only in 9 (24%); whereas the species was detected only in 20 of our 40 sampling units (50%; Figure 1) included in the potential distribution area proposed by Escalera‐Vázquez et al (2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…This region consists of vegetation mosaics composed of conifer, oak, deciduous and mountain cloud forests. To define the study area for the search of A. ordinarium , we used the area of occupancy estimated by the IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2015) and the potential distribution area estimated by Escalera‐Vázquez, Hernández‐Guzmán, Soto‐Rojas, & Suazo‐Ortuño et al (2018; Figure 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Location of the study sites, detection condition for Ambystoma ordinarium , area of occupancy of A. ordinarium suggested by the IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2015) and the potential distribution proposed by Escalera‐Vázquez et al (2018)…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We systematically selected 60 stream sections as sampling units, including all streams that presented an independent streamflow, that were at least 3 km apart from each other and that presented different proportions of native vegetation cover within a buffer of 500 m. With this systematic stream selection, we also tried to cover most of the study areas of the combined estimated areas of IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group (2015) and Escalera‐Vázquez et al (2018; Figure 1). Considering the low vagility of A. ordinarium (Ruíz‐Martínez, Alvarado‐Díaz, Suazo‐Ortuño, & Pérez‐Munguía, 2014), this distance of separation among units satisfied the condition of sampling spatial independence.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Occupancy models including local and landscape variables are useful to assess the distribution of a salamander species at risk

et al. 2021

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Numerous amphibian species are at risk of extinction worldwide. Therefore, reliable estimations of the distribution and abundance of these species are necessary for their conservation. Generally, amphibians are difficult to detect in the wild, which compromises the accuracy of long‐term population monitoring and management. Occupancy models are useful tools to assess how environmental variables, at a local and at a landscape scale, affect the distribution and abundance of organisms taking into account species imperfect detectability. In this study, we evaluated with an environmental multiscale approach the seasonal variation of the occupation area of the threatened salamander, Ambystoma ordinarium along its distribution range. We obtained readings in 60 streams of physicochemical variables associated with habitat quality and landscape features. We found that detection and occupation probability of A. ordinarium are seasonally associated with different environmental variables. During the dry season, detectability was positively associated with temperature and stream depth, whereas occupancy was positively associated with the proportion of crops in the landscape and stream elevation. In the rainy season, the detection probability was not explained by any variable considered, and occupancy was negatively associated with stream's electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen. Based on the estimation of occupied sites, we showed that A. ordinarium presents a more restricted distribution range than previously projected. Therefore, our results reveal the importance of evaluating the accuracy of distribution estimates for the conservation of threatened species as A. ordinarium.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 50%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Occupancy models including local and landscape variables are useful to assess the distribution of a salamander species at risk

et al. 2021

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Assessing functional connectivity and anthropogenic impacts on Ambystoma altamirani populations in Bosque De Agua, Central Mexico

Ruiz-Reyes,

Heredia-Bobadilla,

Ávila-Akerberg

et al. 2024

Eur J Wildl Res

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Examining current bias and future projection consistency of globally downscaled climate projections commonly used in climate impact studies

Berio Fortini,

Kaiser,

Frazier

et al. 2023

Climatic Change

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The associated uncertainties of future climate projections are one of the biggest obstacles to overcome in studies exploring the potential regional impacts of future climate shifts. In remote and climatically complex regions, the limited number of available downscaled projections may not provide an accurate representation of the underlying uncertainty in future climate or the possible range of potential scenarios. Consequently, global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world. However, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we explore the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) in providing plausible future climate scenarios for regional climate change impact studies. Our analysis was based on three steps: (1) standardizing a baseline period to compare available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets; (2) bias correcting projections using a single observation-based baseline; and (3) having controlled differences in baselines between datasets, exploring the patterns and magnitude of projected climate shifts from these datasets to determine their plausibility as future climate scenarios, using Hawaiʻi as an example region. Focusing on mean annual temperature and precipitation, we show projected climate shifts from these commonly used global datasets not only may vary significantly from one another but may also fall well outside the range of future scenarios derived from regional downscaling efforts. As species distribution models are commonly created from these datasets, we further illustrate how a substantial portion of variability in future species distribution shifts can arise from the choice of global dataset used. Hence, projected shifts between baseline and future scenarios from these global downscaled projections warrant careful evaluation before use in climate impact studies, something rarely done in the existing literature.

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PredictingAmbystoma ordinariumHabitat in Central Mexico Using Species Distribution Models

Cited by 16 publications

References 57 publications

Occupancy models including local and landscape variables are useful to assess the distribution of a salamander species at risk

Occupancy models including local and landscape variables are useful to assess the distribution of a salamander species at risk

Assessing functional connectivity and anthropogenic impacts on Ambystoma altamirani populations in Bosque De Agua, Central Mexico

Examining current bias and future projection consistency of globally downscaled climate projections commonly used in climate impact studies

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