Predicting metal consumption

Roberts, Mark C.

doi:10.1016/0301-4207(90)90018-7

Cited by 36 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…Decomposition analysis has been used since the 1970s, mainly in the field of energy consumption (see the review by Ang and Zhang [2000]). Since the end of the last century, this technique has been applied to MFAs (e.g., Hashimoto et al 2008; Roberts 1988, 1990; Waggoner et al 1996). In this section we elucidate the factors that have changed recent resource use in China using the decomposition analysis method.…”

Section: Decomposition Analysis Of China's Direct Materials Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Resource Use in Growing China

Wang¹,

Hashimoto²,

Moriguchi³

et al. 2012

J of Industrial Ecology

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Summary Natural resources provide the basis for our life on Earth. This article presents the accounts of China's direct material input (DMI) during 1998–2008. Using decomposition, we examine factors that have influenced changes in recent resource use in China. China's resource demand in 2011–2015 is projected, based on China's 12th Five‐Year Plan. Finally, effective policies to restrain China's resource demand are discussed with the following conclusions: (1) During 1998–2008, China's DMI doubled, from 11 gigatons (Gt) to 22 Gt. Metallic minerals had the strongest growth, quadrupling; nonmetallic minerals and fossil fuels more than doubled, but biomass remained stable. In relative terms, nonmetallic minerals dominated, with more than 60% of total DMI. (2) Factors of affluence (A) and material use intensity (T), respectively, contributed most to the increase and decrease of DMI, but the overall decrease effect is much smaller. Factors of population (P) and recycling (R) only slightly affected changes in China's DMI. (3) During 2008–2015, China's DMI is expected to increase by 27% to 38%, from 22 Gt to 28 to 31 Gt. The average annual rate of increase of DMI would drop to 3% to 5%, from 7% during 1998–2008. (4) Designing new products and infrastructure that use less energy and materials and changing consumption patterns to be more sustainable are crucial to the future resource strategy of China. More policies are expected to improve China's material use intensity and recycling levels.

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Section: Decomposition Analysis Of China's Direct Materials Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…technique has been applied to MFAs (e.g., Hashimoto et al 2008;Roberts 1988Roberts , 1990Waggoner et al 1996). In this section we elucidate the factors that have changed recent resource use in China using the decomposition analysis method.…”

Section: Decomposition Analysis Of China's Direct Materials Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resource Use in Growing China

Wang¹,

Hashimoto²,

Moriguchi³

et al. 2012

J of Industrial Ecology

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“…The material composition of product declined for all metals over the entire period , except for aluminum, suggesting that substitutions and technical changes driving reductions for the seven metals by themselves could not explain the sudden slackening in demand after 1974. Roberts (1990)…”

Section: Materials Decomposition Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Indicators of Dematerialization and the Materials Intensity of Use

Cleveland

Rüth

1998

J of Industrial Ecology

226

114

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Summary We review the major empirical analyses of the related concepts of dematerialization and intensity of use. Dematerialization refen to the absolute or relative reduction in the quantity of materials used and/or the quantity of waste generated in the production of a unit of economic output A common indicator is the intensity of material use, which is the quantity of material used per unit of economic output. Our discussion focuses on seven topics: the environmental Kuznets curve for materials, material use and long wave theory material decomposition analysis, statistical, inpuboutput and dynamic models of material use, and analyses of national material use. We examine the measurement of aggregate material use and waste emissions, hypothesis testing, the importance of imports, and forces that countervail dematerialization such as rising affluence and the “rebound effect.” We conclude that: our knowledge of the extent of and mechanisms behind the patterns of material use are limited largely to individual materials or very specific industries, and most of those examples are metals; the economy is getting “lighter” but the aggregate economic significance of that trend, if any, is unknown; there is no compelling macroeconomic evidence that the US. economy is “decoupled” from material inputs; and we know even less about the net environmental effects of many changes in materials use. We caution against gross generalizations about material use, particularly the “gut” feeling that technical change, substitution, and a shift t o the “information age” inexorably lead to decreased materials intensity and reduced environmental impact. We end with some suggestions for research that may help answer these important questions.

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“…The intensity-of-use model of Roberts (1990Roberts ( , 1996 provides a convenient conceptual framework with which to decompose changes in steel consumption into changes in GDP and changes in the intensity-of-use for steel. Intensity of use can further be decomposed into measures of (i) the steel content of domestically produced goods in steel consuming industries and (ii) the size of steel consuming industries relative to GDP.…”

Section: Determinants Of Steel Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining variation in steel consumption in the OECD

Crompton

2015

Resources Policy

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Predicting metal consumption

Cited by 36 publications

References 0 publications

Resource Use in Growing China

Resource Use in Growing China

Indicators of Dematerialization and the Materials Intensity of Use

Explaining variation in steel consumption in the OECD

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