Predicting Postoperative Length of Stay in Patients Undergoing Laparoscopic Right Hemicolectomy for Colon Cancer: A Machine Learning Approach Using SICE (Società Italiana di Chirurgia Endoscopica) CoDIG Data

Abstract

The evolution of laparoscopic right hemicolectomy, particularly with complete mesocolic excision (CME) and central vascular ligation (CVL), represents a significant advancement in colon cancer surgery. The CoDIG 1 and CoDIG 2 studies highlighted Italy’s progressive approach, providing useful findings for optimizing patient outcomes and procedural efficiency. Within this context, accurately predicting postoperative length of stay (LoS) is crucial for improving resource allocation and patient care, yet its determination through machine learning techniques (MLTs) remains underexplored. This study aimed to harness MLTs to forecast the LoS for patients undergoing right hemicolectomy for colon cancer, using data from the CoDIG 1 (1224 patients) and CoDIG 2 (788 patients) studies. Multiple MLT algorithms, including random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), were trained to predict LoS, with CoDIG 1 data used for internal validation and CoDIG 2 data for external validation. The RF algorithm showed a strong internal validation performance, achieving the best performances and a 0.92 ROC in predicting long-term stays (more than 5 days). External validation using the SVM model demonstrated 75% ROC values. Factors such as fast-track protocols, anastomosis, and drainage emerged as key predictors of LoS. Integrating MLTs into predicting postoperative LOS in colon cancer surgery offers a promising avenue for personalized patient care and improved surgical management. Using intraoperative features in the algorithm enables the profiling of a patient’s stay based on the planned intervention. This issue is important for tailoring postoperative care to individual patients and for hospitals to effectively plan and manage long-term stays for more critical procedures.