Predicting Present and Future Suitable Climate Spaces (Potential Distributions) for an Armillaria Root Disease Pathogen (Armillaria solidipes) and Its Host, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), Under Changing Climates

Abstract

Climate change and associated disturbances are expected to exacerbate forest root diseases because of altered distributions of existing and emerging forest pathogens and predisposition of trees due to climatic maladaptation and other disturbances. Predictions of suitable climate space (potential geographic distribution) for forest pathogens and host trees under contemporary and future climate scenarios will guide the selection of appropriate management practices by forest managers to minimize adverse impacts of forest disease within forest ecosystems. A native pathogen (Armillaria solidipes) that causes Armillaria root disease of conifers in North America is used to demonstrate bioclimatic models (maps) that predict suitable climate space for both pathogen and a primary host (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Douglas-fir) under contemporary and future climate scenarios. Armillaria root disease caused by A. solidipes is a primary cause of lost productivity and reduced carbon sequestration in coniferous forests of North America, and its impact is expected to increase under climate change due to tree maladaptation. Contemporary prediction models of suitable climate space were produced using Maximum Entropy algorithms that integrate climatic data with 382 georeferenced occurrence locations for DNA sequence-confirmed A. solidipes. A similar approach was used for visually identified P. menziesii from 11,826 georeferenced locations to predict its climatic requirements. From the contemporary models, data were extrapolated through future climate scenarios to forecast changes in geographic areas where native A. solidipes and P. menziesii will be climatically adapted. Armillaria root disease is expected to increase in geographic areas where predictions suggest A. solidipes is well adapted and P. menziesii is maladapted within its current range. By predicting areas at risk for Armillaria root disease, forest managers can deploy suitable strategies to reduce damage from the disease.

Pathophysiology and transcriptomic analysis of Picea koraiensis inoculated by bark beetle-vectored fungus Ophiostoma bicolor

“…With global climate change, forest disasters caused by parasitic and semi-parasitic fungi have become more severe, which was also the case with the beetle-vectored fungi ( Kim et al, 2021 ; Klesse et al, 2021 ; Morrison et al, 2021 ; Sitz et al, 2021 ; Li et al, 2022 ). However, compared with the former, the diseases caused by beetle-vectored fungi, particularly in gymnosperms, are not well studied.…”

Armillaria altimontana in North America: Biology and Ecology

“…Previously, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) bioclimatic modeling [ 51 ] was demonstrated as an effective tool to predict the suitable climate space (potential distribution) of A . solidipes under contemporary and projected future climate scenarios [ 16 ]. The MaxEnt approach to bioclimatic modeling is well suited for Armillaria as these algorithms perform well with limited occurrence points [ 52 , 53 ] and presence-only occurrence data [ 54 ].…”

Nuevos hospederos para Desarmillaria caespitosa y Armillaria mexicana en Veracruz y Michoacán, México

“…Las proyecciones del cambio climático sugieren que, probablemente, la pudrición de raíces por Armillaria aumentará en zonas donde el clima será menos adecuado para los hospederos, pero seguirá siendo adecuado para los patógenos (Kim et al, 2021;Klopfenstein, Kim, Hanna, Richardson, & Lundquist, 2011). Además, la incidencia y severidad de la pudrición de raíces por Armillaria podrían multiplicarse en varias zonas frutícolas de México debido a los factores siguientes: 1) empleo de sustratos contaminados con propágulos de Armillaria/Desarmillaria en la propagación de plantas en viveros; 2) cambio de uso de suelo de bosque de pino-encino que podría promover la propagación de especies patógenas de Armillaria/ Desarmillaria en huertos frutícolas recién establecidos; 3) uso de árboles que no se adaptan al sitio o se vuelven inadaptados debido al cambio climático; y 4) otras perturbaciones bióticas y abióticas que crean condiciones adecuadas para la pudrición de raíces por Armillaria.…”

“…Los autores agradecen el financiamiento proporcionado por el SENASICA (Servicio Nacional de Sanidad, Climate-change projections suggest that Armillaria root disease will likely increase in areas where the climate will become less suitable for hosts, while remaining suitable for pathogens (Kim et al, 2021;Klopfenstein, Kim, Hanna, Richardson, & Lundquist, 2011). In addition, we consider that incidence and severity of Armillaria root disease could increase in several fruit-growing areas of Mexico due to multiple factors, such as 1) use of substrates contaminated with Armillaria/Desarmillaria propagules for plant propagation in nurseries; 2) change of land use (e.g., replacement of pine-oak forest with fruit orchards) that could promote the spread of pathogenic Armillaria/Desarmillaria species from previously occupied forested sites; 3) use of trees that are maladapted to the site or become maladapted due to climate change; and/or 4) other biotic and abiotic disturbances that create conditions suitable for Armillaria root disease.…”