Predicting range shifts of <i>Davidia involucrata</i> Ball. under future climate change

Long, Teng; Tang, Junfeng; Pilfold, Nicholas W.; Zhao, Xuzhe; Dong, Tingfa

doi:10.1002/ece3.8023

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…As D. involucrate is a Tertiary relict plant endemic to China, we chose the whole China as the study area following previous studies (Figure 1 ) (Long et al, 2021b ; Tang et al, 2017 ; Wang et al, 2019 ). Totally, 337 occurrence records of D. involucrate at the spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km for the time period 1979–2013 were obtained from Long et al ( 2021a ), in which an extensive database of occurrence records was assembled. Additional details on the methods of collecting and processing the occurrence data can be found in Long et al ( 2021b ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Tang

Zhao

2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC ( p < .001) and TSS ( p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Datasets used in this study are obtain from Long et al ( 2021a ), which is available online from the Dryad Digital Repository: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cnp5hqc56 .…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Tang

Zhao

2022

Ecology and Evolution

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“…The occurrence records of the Theaceae species used in this study are obtain from Zhang et al ( 2020 ), which is available online from the Dryad Digital Repository: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.tx95x69td . The climate and land use data used in this study are obtained from Long et al ( 2021 ), which is also available online from the Dryad Digital Repository: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cnp5hqc56 .…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large variability in response to future climate and land‐use changes among Chinese Theaceae species

Tang

Zhao

2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Theaceae is an important family in the phylogeny of angiosperm in China, which are potentially threatened by future changes in climatic and land use conditions. Therefore, understanding and predicting the isolated and combined effects of these two global change factors on Theaceae species is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed the isolated and combined effects of climate and land use change on the distribution shifts of 95 Theaceae species under different future scenarios by comparing projections of three model configurations: (1) dynamics climate and constant land use variables; (2) constant climate and dynamics land use variables; and (3) dynamics climate and dynamics land use variables. We find that all the three types of models predicted range contractions for most of the 95 Theaceae species under all future scenarios. Moreover, we find that climate change has rather strong effect for most species while land use change has nonsignificant or weak effect on future species distributions, although both of these two isolated effects are highly variable across individual species. Finally, the combined effect of these two factors reveals that the land use change may amplify or buffer distribution shifts expected from climate change impact depending on species. These findings emphasize the importance of taking into account the large variability in response to land use change among Theaceae species when developing land‐based conservation strategies in a changing climate.

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“…Moreover, the narrow natural habitats of D. involucrata are experiencing significant amounts of atmospheric N deposition, which may affect seedling growth and community development [32]. Although some studies have focused on the effects of environmental changes on D. involucrata populations, including physiological responses [33,34], biological conservation [35,36] and distribution forecasting [37], there are fewer studies estimating the responses of plant functional traits to N deposition. Therefore, a clear understanding of the effects of N deposition on the functional traits of D. involucrata is necessary to reveal its adaptation strategy and facilitate conservation efforts for this rare and endangered species.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Nitrogen Application on Leaf and Root Functional Traits of Davidia involucrata Saplings

Liu,

Wen,

et al. 2023

Forests

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Understanding the effects of nitrogen (N) deposition on plant functional traits can provide insights into their adaptation strategies. We conducted an N application experiment (0, 5, 10, 15 g N m−2) with potted saplings of the endangered species Davidia involucrata and examined 24 functional traits of both leaves and roots. We found that N application increased the leaf morphological traits, except for a significant decrease (by 19.2%–27.0%) in specific leaf area (SLA). Compared to the control treatment, N application significantly increased the specific root surface area (SRA), specific root length (SRL), and root tissue density (RTD) by 9.2%–20.1%, 20.2%–47.9%, and 30.8%–46.4%, respectively, while root diameter was conservative and insensitive to N application. Additionally, N application had contrasting effects between leaf and root carbon, N, and phosphorus contents and their stoichiometry. SRL, SRA, and RTD were positively correlated with most leaf photosynthetic traits, but negatively correlated with SLA. Moreover, root biomass and root chemical traits were also tightly correlated with leaf photosynthetic traits and chemical traits. These results suggest that N application may trigger a resource-conservative strategy for leaves but a nutrient-acquisitive strategy for roots. Future N deposition combined with other practices, such as simultaneous P fertilizer application, can be effective for the scientific conservation of D. involucrata populations in their natural habitats.

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Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Cited by 10 publications

References 98 publications

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Large variability in response to future climate and land‐use changes among Chinese Theaceae species

The Impact of Nitrogen Application on Leaf and Root Functional Traits of Davidia involucrata Saplings

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