Predicting Recidivism in Sex Offenders Using the VRAG and SORAG: The Contribution of Age-at-Release

Abstract

Sex offenders (N = 468) were released from custody and recidivism outcome recorded. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) were scored for each offender. Results indicated that, for the majority of actuarial items contained in the VRAG and SORAG and for VRAG and SORAG bin scores, offenders with lower actuarial scores were released from custody at a significantly older age. Actuarial scores were regressed on age-at-release and residuals saved as age-corrected actuarial scores. Using ROC analysis, predictive accuracy was evaluated comparing original actuarial scores with age-corrected scores. For most item scores and both bin scores, the ability to predict recidivism was significantly reduced after the effects of age-at-release had been removed.

Beyond sexual recidivism: A review of the sexual criminal career parameters of adult sex offenders

“…These results, however, have been criticized on methodological grounds, such as the use of small samples of offenders, the presence of a small base rate of sexual reoffending, the use of uneven age categories to describe the data, the failure to control for the time at risk after release and the number of previous convictions for a sexual crime (Barbaree, Blanchard, & Langton, 2003;Thornton, 2006). Finally, the controversy over the age effect has led researchers to question whether risk assessors should consider the offender's age at the time of prison release, and if so, how the adjustment should be done (Barbaree et al, 2007;Doren, 2006;Hanson, 2006;Harris & Rice, 2007).…”

“…This is apparent by the introduction of dynamic risk factors or factors associated with changes in the risk of reoffending. It is also apparent by the plethora of recent studies on the role of age, aging and sexual recidivism in the past decade (e.g., Barbaree, Langton, & Blanchard, 2007;Doren, 2006;Lussier & Healey, 2009). These two lines of work, however, have not been integrated into a conceptual model of sex offending.…”

“…The static-maturational hypothesis suggests that sex offenders' risk of reoffending is subject to a maturation effect, as this risk typically follows the age-crime curve (Barbaree et al, 2007;Hanson, 2006;Lussier & Healey, 2009). Importantly, the maturation hypothesis is based on the assumption of a stable propensity to reoffend, but the offending rate can change over life course.…”

“…The high covariance between these two age factors might have limited researchers in finding a statistical age at release effect in multivariate analyses. Furthermore, looking at the predictive validity of the VRAG and the SORAG (Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, 1998), Barbaree et al (2007) found that after correcting for age at release, the predictive accuracy of instruments decreased significantly, suggesting that an age effect was embedded in the risk assessment score. These actuarial tools have been developed by identifying risk factors that are empirically linked to sexual reoffending.…”

Trajectoires criminelles et récidive des délinquants sexuels adultes : l’hypothèse « statique » revue et corrigée

“…Au cours des dernières années, plusieurs études se sont attardées au rôle de l'âge sur les risques de récidive des délinquants sexuels (Hanson, 2002(Hanson, , 2006Barbaree et al, 2003 ;Doren, 2006 ;Fazel et al, 2006 ;Thornton, 2006 ;Barbaree et al, 2007 ;Harris et Rice, 2007 ;Prentky et Lee, 2007 ;Barbaree et Blanchard, 2008 ;Lussier et Healey, 2009). Ces études empiriques ont montré une relation modeste entre l'âge et la récidive sexuelle.…”