The German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure is currently preparing the 2015 Federal Transport Investment Plan. As part of this, it is updating the overall methodology of its cost-benefit analysis meaning values of both reliability (VOR) and travel time (VOT) for personal and business travel will be estimated. While the VOTs will replace a set of existing values, the VOR will be estimated for the first time as they are not incorporated in the standard appraisal yet. The data collection adopted a two-stage approach: first respondents reported about current trips (revealed preference), which were then systematically varied to be the basis for stated preference experiments. This paper presents the findings of estimating the VOR. In the SP experiments the reliability of the travel modes was presented with different formats. The final model formulation differs in the definition of reliability for private and public transport. For car trips, saving travel time is "worthier" to the respondents than reducing the variability. The calculated VOR for the mean expected unscheduled delay of public transport trips are slightly lower than the VOTs which means that the reliability is here less important to the respondents than relevant travel time saving. One minute of mean expected unscheduled delay and one minute of standard deviation are almost equivalent to one minute of travel time saving (reliability ratio). As this has been the first official estimation of the value of reliability and time for Germany, the values should be reconsidered and updated on a regular basis.Ehreke, Hess, Weis, Axhausen 3
INTRODUCTION AND RELATED WORKThe effects of hundreds of infrastructure projects on transport policies and investments are to be evaluated with cost benefit analyses (CBA) in Germany. The German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) is currently preparing the 2015 Federal Transport Investment Plan (Bundesverkehrswegeplan, BVWP) its medium to long-term investment strategy for the country's transport infrastructure serving longer distance travel. As part of this, it is updating and modernizing the overall methodology of its central evaluation tool: the cost-benefit analysis. One on-going project is focusing on the CBA as such, and a second is estimating and recommending values of reliability (VOR) and travel time (VOT) for personal and business travel. While the new VOTs will replace a set of existing values which were based on values from BVWP'92 and have not been verified independently since then, the VOR will be estimated for the first time as they are not yet incorporated in the standard appraisal yet. The aim of integrating reliability into the new BVWP is in line with practice and science to make transport systems not only faster but also more reliable (1) Another BMVI initiated ongoing project will calculate VOTs and VORs for freight (2) but this is not subject of the presented research. Infrastructure projects evaluated with CBA and transport policies not only influen...