Predicting Revolt: Fragility Indexes and the Level of Violence and Instability in the Arab Spring

Buterbaugh, Kevin; Calin, Costel; Marchant-Shapiro, Theresa

doi:10.1080/09546553.2015.1049343

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…This variable is widely employed in the literature to express concepts of political stability and political opportunity (e.g. Buterbaugh et al, 2017). In this respect, political stability is usually considered as an input measure of the perception of political opportunity structures as it favours processes of including oppositional group claims and the perception, among such groups, of the effectiveness of institutionalized political opportunities (Kitschelt, 1986).…”

Section: Control Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The domestic democratic peace: How democracy constrains political violence

Veri

Sass

2022

International Political Science Review

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This article offers a systematic, longitudinal and cross-national assessment of the constraint democratic institutions place on domestic political violence. It formulates two structural equation models which allows for the examination of the relative contribution of formal institutions and political culture as sources of constraint on political violence. Institutionalized opportunities for democratic participation significantly reduce political violence; however, these institutions only realize their full potential when embedded within a deliberative political culture. This article suggests that when oppositional groups view democratic participation as meaningful, and state elites engage with their claims, these groups are inclined to behave as radical democrats rather than violent extremists.

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Section: Control Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The domestic democratic peace: How democracy constrains political violence

Veri

Sass

2022

International Political Science Review

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“…This focus on organizational structure is grounded in the political science literature on rebel organizations, which has flourished in the last decade (Parkinson and Zaks, 2018). Scholars of rebel organizations have identified how state strength (Buterbaugh et al, 2017) and the manner of state repression (Lindemann and Wimmer, 2018) influence not only the occurrence of armed resistance, but the structures of rebel organizations (Buesa and Baumert, 2018;Ghatak, 2018;Marsden, 2016).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

How rebel groups form in genocide: The Warsaw Ghetto fighters

Reilly

2021

Violence: An International Journal

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The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising is emblematic of armed Jewish resistance to the Holocaust; it should also be emblematic of rebel organization formation and capacity building in the most extreme power asymmetry. The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising happened because civilians who were directly experiencing a genocide formed rebel organizations that gained the capacity to hold territory. Drawing from video testimonies and memoirs of survivors, diaries of witnesses, and the work of historians, this study analyzes the formation and evolution of the Jewish Fighting Organization (ŻOB) to create and begin to validate a generalizable theory on how rebel organizations form in genocide, and how they create the capacity to hold territory from the genocidal opponent. The ŻOB evolved from a violent resistance organization to a rebel organization with a military infrastructure that could hold territory against the Nazis; further, it was this capacity to hold territory that allowed the ŻOB to win the survival of many Jews. These findings offer important insights on the possibility of rebel group mobilization against genocidal persecution, and can be used to understand contemporary genocide resisters.

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“…There have always been states that performed poorly regardless of the standards for their assessment. States continue to decline into failure or fragility due to the effect of some recent events and crises, for instance, the Arab Spring (Buterbaugh et al, 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

Conceptual Perspectives on State Fragility

Elagin¹

2021

Vestnik MGIMO-universiteta

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The article explores scientific discourse on the phenomenon of state fragility and reviews contemporary research that aims to uncover what factors account for the emergence of states that are vulnerable to risks and crises and lack the capacity to deliver a response on their own. In order to achieve this goal, the author analyzes the evolution of the state fragility concept and reviews the literature on its causes. The article finds significant advancement in scientific thought about fragile states, acknowledg ing their continuous and multi-dimensional nature (the 'ALC' and 'OECD' approaches). However, these approaches tend to view fragile states as a deviation from the Europe an nation-state model and focus more on the attributes of fragility (inability to perform core functions of the state or lacking the capacity to cope with risks and crises) while failing to produce a precise explanation for its causes. Hence, there is a need to analyze the process of fragile states formation and its consequences, i.e., to look at the macrohistorical dimension of state fragility. A better understanding of the historical context of state fragility and stricter identification criteria for the subgroup of severely and chronically fragile states allows identifying some structural explanatory factors such as rigidity of pre-independence colonial state borders, heterogeneity of population, and preferences that constraints collective action and small economic size. The literature review presented in the article finds that fragile states often have an insufficient tax base to guarantee the efficient provision of public goods. There are also agency factors that contribute to increased state fragility. This review also finds that imperfect political institutions may produce kleptocratic political regimes detached from the population's interests and irresponsive to them. Consequently, they are likely to deny or limit access to public goods for some population groups. A combination of these factors is likely to create weak and fragile states, with the extent of fragility being context-specific. Recognizing the impact of the factors discussed in the article may help produce better policy responses to various development problems that plague fragile states.

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Predicting Revolt: Fragility Indexes and the Level of Violence and Instability in the Arab Spring

Cited by 7 publications

References 8 publications

The domestic democratic peace: How democracy constrains political violence

The domestic democratic peace: How democracy constrains political violence

How rebel groups form in genocide: The Warsaw Ghetto fighters

Conceptual Perspectives on State Fragility

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