Predicting school weapon possession: A secondary analysis of the youth risk behavior surveillance survey

Abstract

As school psychologists are asked to help schools evaluate the level of violence risk posed by specific students, they need to fully consider the technical adequacy of any test or procedure that is proposed to "predict" future violent behavior or conditions. In this article, we contribute to this discussion by examining responses of 40,435 students from the 1993, 1995, and 1997 administrations of the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey. Student self-reported school risk behaviors and experiences are used to "predict" recent weapon possession on school campuses and to illustrate the use of receiver operating characteristic curves to evaluate the performance of a test for prediction purposes. An index of nine school risk behaviors was moderately correlated (r ϭ .36) with school weapon possession. However, when the accuracy of using this school risk index to predict weapon possession is evaluated, it is found that the area under the ROC curve was approximately .75, a moderate-to-large effect size but still demonstrating inadequate prediction at the individual student level. Further, there were twice as many frequent weapon carriers with zero school risks than with 7-9 risks, suggesting that attention directed toward violence risk profiles may promote inattention to another group of students who engage in potentially highrisk behaviors at school. It is argued that school psychologists should consider school violence appraisals within a developmental, long-term model. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.As a scientific discipline, psychology has been concerned with the exploration, discovery, understanding, and prediction of human behavior. Of these, prediction has emerged as a crucial but often elusive goal for professional psychology. Industrial-organizational psychologists are asked to predict worker productivity, job satisfaction, and consumer trends. Social psychologists predict patterns of interpersonal attraction, motivational tendencies, and group behaviors. Clinical psychologists predict atypical or maladaptive behavior patterns. Developmental psychologists predict cognitive, interpersonal, and emotional trajectories. As a subspecialization bridging the gap between psychology and education, school psychology has been associated most prominently with the prediction of student learning and school adjustment. In fact, the process of assessing present probabilities and future conditions is a daily aspect of the school psychology profession. In this context, prediction consists of the process of compiling information in order to make judgments about the probability that a condition is present (e.g., a math disability) and that a future state is likely to occur (math achievement will continue to lag without appropriate instructional support, among other undesirable sequelae). Such "predictions" rely upon an array of data sources including classroom observations, standardized test batteries, developmental histories, parent and teacher reports, and clinical judgments, to name but a few. Generally speaking, school psych...

Gun Possession among American Youth: A Discovery-Based Approach to Understand Gun Violence

“…Their work, an important response to the heightened risk of school-based violence that was taking place at the turn of the century, aimed to identify behavioral correlates of weapon possession in schools. In addition to identifying the prevalence of weapon possession on school property during this time period, they identified a significant, and notable, positive correlation between an increased school risk index (a composite score assessing youth engagement in nine possible risk behaviors occurring on school property) and weapon possession [42]. Twelve years later, our work confirms these relationships between school-based risk behaviors (feeling unsafe at school, substance use on school property) and gun possession, specifically, exists.…”

Building community connections for youth to reduce violence

“…A School Violence Surveillance Reporting System was developed by Pesce in cooperation with the CCDPH, Division of Epidemiology. This allows both high schools to track the nature and location of the violent incidents, injuries incurred, and whether it was gang-related (Furlong, Bates, & Smith, 2001). Surveillance system data have allowed the schools to improve safety in key areas.…”

School Shootings in Deutschland

“…Der eigene Tod wird medienwirksam und narzisstisch inszeniert, um unvergessen zu bleiben, Ruhm zu erlangen und uneingeschränkte Macht auszuüben (Köhler & Kursawe, 2003;Rachor, 2002 Miller, 1990;Schmidt & Schmidt-Mummendey, 1974). In jedem Fall kann der schnelle Zugriff auf Waffen eine Tatdurchführung vereinfachen und somit begünstigen (Blumstein & Cork, 1996;DuRant, Krochuk, Kreiter, Sinal & Woods, 1995;Hayer et al, 2006;Hepburn & Hemenway, 2004;Heubrock et al, 2005; (Brenner et al, 1999), trotzdem tragen 10% bis 20% der Kinder und Jugendlichen in Schule und/oder Freizeit Waffen (Furlong, Bates & Smith, 2001;Hayes & Hemenway, 1999), meist Messer (Pickett et al, 2005). Waffenbesitz korreliert mit weiteren Risikofaktoren für Jugendkriminalität wie der Zugehörigkeit zu einer Minorität oder Gang, Drogenkonsum, familiären Problemen, Suizidplänen oder hohem Aggressionspotential (DuRant, Krochuk, Kreiter, Sinal & Woods, 1999;Estell, Farmer, Cairns & Clemmer, 1999;Hayes & Hemenway, 1999;Knutsche & Klingemann, 2004), aber auch mit Angst vor Viktimisierung und eigenen Gewalterfahrungen (Henrich, Brookmeyer & Shahar, 2005;May, 1999;Sheley, 1993;Rosenfeld, Baumer & Meissner, 2007).…”