Predicting secondary school dropout among South African adolescents: A survival analysis approach

Abstract

Education is one of the strongest predictors of health worldwide. In South Africa, school dropout is a crisis where by Grade 12, only 52% of the age appropriate population remain enrolled. Survival analysis was used to identify the risk of dropping out of secondary school for male and female adolescents and examine the influence of substance use and leisure experience predictors while controlling for demographic and known predictors using secondary, longitudinal data. Results indicated being male, not living with one’s mother, smoking cigarettes in the past month, and lower levels of leisure-related intrinsic motivation significantly predicted dropout. Results support comprehensive prevention programmes that target risk behaviour and leisure.

Trajectories of adolescent substance use development and the influence of healthy leisure: A growth mixture modeling approach

“…Prior literature suggests academic disengagement and dropout is associated with risk behavior such as substance use (Townsend et al, 2007) and therefore current results may under-report actual rates of substance use. Previous research has found South African dropouts are 85% more likely to have used tobacco in the past month as compared to non-dropouts (Weybright, Caldwell, Xie, Wegner, Smith, 2016). …”

Out of school youth

“…The reasons for youth to leave school are often multidimensional and complex (19). Quantitative South African and international studies have shown that there are multiple reasons for drop out which include poverty (11,20,21), high use of substances (4,5,11,21), bullying (22), boredom (4,23), family needs (helping support the families, being pregnant, traditional family role expectations) (11,19,21,(24)(25)(26), illness (21,27), absenteeism (11,(28)(29)(30), disability (21,26), community violence (21), and school-related factors (academic performance, disliking school, not getting along with teachers, being too old for school and disciplinary consequences) (5,11,19,21,24). In addition, respondents tended to cite nonspecific terms such as "other" reasons for leaving school (27).…”

“…Alcohol and tobacco use during adolescence have been associated with school dropout, and poor educational outcomes (4,5,7,8,(32)(33)(34)(35). However, once students drop out of school, their alcohol and tobacco use may vary according to the reason for dropping out.…”

“…Background Tobacco use and excessive use of alcohol results in millions of deaths annually (1), and is associated with dependence, the risk of leaving school, poor educational outcomes, diminished work capacity, non-communicable diseases, and premature morbidity (2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8). An important challenge for South Africa, like many other countries, is the high prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use among adolescents (9,10).…”

“…Drug and tobacco use among adolescents has usually been associated with school dropout, risk of leaving school, and poor educational outcomes (4,5,34,35). Compared to in-school learners, school dropouts reported significantly higher rates of cigarette smoking (11,22).…”