Predicting sentencing outcomes with centrality measures

Abstract

Despite their importance for stakeholders in the criminal justice system, few methods have been developed for determining which criminal behavior variables will produce accurate sentence predictions. Some approaches found in the literature resort to techniques based on indirect variables, but not on the social network behavior with exception of the work of Baker and Faulkner [ASR 58: 837–860, 1993]. Using information on the Caviar Network narcotics trafficking group as a real-world case, we attempt to explain sentencing outcomes employing the social network indicators. Specifically, we report the ability of centrality measures to predict a) the verdict (innocent or guilty) and b) the sentence length in years. We show that while the set of indicators described by Baker and Faulkner yields good predictions, introduction of the additional centrality measures generates better predictions. Some ideas for orienting future research on further improvements to sentencing outcome prediction are discussed.A pesar de la importancia para diferentes actores involucrados en el sistema judicial, se han desarrollados pocos métodos para determinar las variables del comportamiento organizado que permiten predecir las sentencias judiciales de redes criminales. Algunas aproximaciones encontradas en la literatura especializada usa variables indirectas al comportamiento organizado y no en el comportamiento en red de estas organizaciones. Nosotros usamos información real sobre un caso de red criminal real que operó en Montreal (Canadá) y analizamos la comunicación entre los miembros de la red para determinar si su comportamiento comunicacional permite predecir el veredicto así como los años de sentencia. Encontramos que los modelos de regresión obtenidos y las variables de centralidad nodal utilizadas por nosotros logra un mejor capacidad predictiva. Finalmente, se discuten algunas ideas dirigidas a mejorar la predicción de sentencias judiciales desde las medidas de redes sociales

The contribution of forensic science to the analysis of crime networks

“…The interpretation of the metrics is an unresolved problem. Sparrow (1991) argued that it is a sign of strength, whereas Peterson (1994) (Morselli et al 2013). Researchers, however, have to be cautious of the limitations of the approach.…”

Modeling Verdict Outcomes Using Social Network Measures: The Watergate and Caviar Network Cases

“…As noted in the Introduction, there are three case studies in the literature that investigate verdict classification based on social network measures [ 26 – 28 ]. The specific problem these papers attempted to address is the following: given a set of evidence or data on the relations between individuals in a social network suspected of criminal activity, what can be inferred with a certain degree of confidence regarding their guilt or innocence?…”

“…The problem of verdict outcome classification in particular is of great interest to various actors in criminal justice systems, and especially to forensic criminologists faced with the task of converting a set of data into evidence of a network’s criminal conduct. To our knowledge, however, only three academic studies have analyzed the relationship between verdicts and social network measures: the pioneering work by Baker and Faulkner [ 26 ] and, more recently, the papers by Faulkner and Cheney [ 27 ] and Morselli, Masías, Crespo and Laengle [ 28 ]. These authors have used different sets of social network measures to test their relationships with verdict outcomes.…”

Historia en las redes, las redes de humanistas en el renacimiento

“…La intermediación ha sido calificada como la medida de la capacidad que tiene un actor determinado de controlar el flujo de la comunicación en la red (Morselli et al, 2013). En cada uno de los periodos temporales en que se subdividió el Renacimiento hubo un personaje que desplego la mayor intermediación de la red correspondiente, Tabla 1.…”