Predicting species distribution from fishers’ local ecological knowledge: a new alternative for data-poor management

Abstract

Many developing countries lack information to manage their endangered species, urging the need for affordable and reliable information. We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial models, with oceanographic variables, to predict the distribution range of Epinephelus marginatus, the dusky grouper, for the entire Southwest Atlantic. We ran a model using scientific information gathered from the literature and another using information gathered from fishers on species presence or absence. In both models, temperature was an important determinant of species occurrence. The predicted occurrence of the dusky grouper overlapped widely (Schoener’s D = 0.71; Warren’s I = 0.91) between the models, despite small differences on the southern and northern extremes of the distribution. These results suggest that basic information provided by fishers on species occurrence in their area can be reliable enough to predict species occurrence over large scales and can be potentially useful for marine spatial planning. Fishers’ knowledge may be an even more viable alternative to data collection than what was previously thought, for countries that both struggle with financial limitations and have urgent conservation needs.

Integrating science and citizen science: the dusky grouper (Epinephelus marginatus) sustainable fishery of Copacabana, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

“…Other information obtained through LEK provides insights for modeling and predicting the distributions of species. This was shown in a study by Lopes [45] for the coast of Brazil using Bayesian hierarchical spatial models and oceanographic variables, with which the author was able to predict the distribution of grouper, Epinephelus marginatus ; they used data from the literature and from fishers, and the results showed a concordance between the models that temperature predicts the distribution of this species and the reliability of the information from the fishers. Duplisea [46], studying redfish ( Sebastes spp.)…”

Fishers and groupers (Epinephelus marginatus and E. morio) in the coast of Brazil: integrating information for conservation

“…The distribution of E. marginatus is another important concern: did the species move southwards in Brazil? The distribution of dusky grouper was shown from the south of Brazil to southern Bahia by Froese and Pauly [22] and by Lopes et al [15]; Condini et al [21] also observed one individual in this area to the south of Bahia. Data from the IUCN (Fig.…”

“…For E. marginatus, temperatures higher than 22–23° cause anomalous eggs (Dinis et al [75], consulted October 14, 2018, at http://www.portaldoconhecimento.gov.cv/bitstream/10961/1531/1/Dinis’s%20paper.pdf). A recent study showed the importance of temperature in predicting the distribution of dusky grouper in Brazil, in addition to showing the reliability of using information from fishers to predict species distributions [15].…”

“…However, the management of these small-scale fisheries is either ignored or conflicts with the livelihoods of local fishers were observed [9, 10]. Most artisanal fishers are poor individuals whose livelihoods depend on fish, and these individuals are often in conflict with the government’s environmental officers [9–15], especially through the top-down establishment of MPAs. The conflicts between MPAs and local fishers, although difficult to address, can be solved by including the fishers in the planning, implementation and functioning of the MPAs [12, 13].…”

“…In particular, the authors showed that fishery management questions should not be shaped as ‘what is the best model’, but rather ‘what should be the management procedures that are more likely to achieve stakeholders’ objectives’ (p. 1287). Lopes et al [15] used data from both scientific and local knowledge of Epinephelus marginatus in Bayesian models to show the importance of local knowledge in predicting species distributions in data-poor fisheries. While it is beyond the scope of this research to provide specific management suggestions, this study will provide data and multilevel, multidisciplinary information (ecology, ethnoecology, ethnobiology, biology) that should aid future management endeavors.…”