Predicting spread and effective control measures for African swine fever– should we blame the boars?

Taylor, Rachel A.; Podgórski, Tomasz; Simons, Robin; Ip, Sophie; Gale, P.; Kelly, L.

doi:10.1101/654160

Cited by 8 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 37 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, we did not include the fact that Belgium erected a fence around their reported cases to stop wild boar movement and implemented increased hunting in the area (16). Therefore, in reality, the risk to France would be much lower, depending on the width and permeability of the fence (37).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, we include the possibility that a susceptible boar could become infected from an infected boar carcass, by considering data on contact rates between live boar and boar carcasses, the probability of transmission via such contact and the length of time the boar carcass is available for contact. The equations for R 0 are included in Supplementary Info S1 and further explanation is provided in Taylor et al (37).…”

Section: Movement Of Wild Boarmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The risk to boar or pigs is very similar in terms of location, as all the risk is focused on the areas of reported cases in 2018. Wild boar movement is relatively local, with dispersal over long distances unlikely (49), and hence the disease is not expected to spread far due to boar dispersal (37). In order to see this more clearly, we zoom in to three regions to gain a better perspective of the risk to various regions in Europe due to wild boar movement (Figure 6).…”

Section: Movement Of Wild Boarmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Risk of Infection by African Swine Fever Virus in European Swine Through Boar Movement and Legal Trade of Pigs and Pig Meat

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

African swine fever (ASF) is currently spreading westwards throughout Europe and eastwards into China, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. A generic risk assessment framework is used to determine the probability of first infection with ASF virus (ASFV) at a fine spatial scale across European Union Member States. The framework aims to assist risk managers across Europe with their ASF surveillance and intervention activities. Performing the risk assessment at a fine spatial scale allows for hot-spot surveillance, which can aid risk managers by directing surveillance or intervention resources at those areas or pathways deemed most at risk, and hence enables prioritization of limited resources. We use 2018 cases of ASF to estimate prevalence of the disease in both wild boar and pig populations and compute the risk of initial infection for 2019 at a 100 km 2 cell resolution via three potential pathways: legal trade in live pigs, natural movement of wild boar, and legal trade in pig meat products. We consider the number of pigs, boar and amount of pig meat entering our area of interest, the prevalence of the disease in the origin country, the probability of exposure of susceptible pigs or boar in the area of interest to introduced infected pigs, boar, or meat from an infected pig, and the probability of transmission to susceptible animals. We provide maps across Europe indicating regions at highest risk of initial infection. Results indicate that the risk of ASF in 2019 was predominantly focused on those regions which already had numerous cases in 2018 (Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania, and Latvia). The riskiest pathway for ASFV transmission to pigs was the movement of wild boar for Eastern European countries and legal trade of pigs for Western European countries. New infections are more likely to occur in wild boar rather than pigs, for both the pig meat and wild boar movement pathways. Our results provide an opportunity to focus surveillance activities and thus increase our ability to detect ASF introductions earlier, a necessary requirement if we are to successfully control the spread of this devastating disease for the pig industry.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Movement Of Wild Boarmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Movement Of Wild Boarmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Risk of Infection by African Swine Fever Virus in European Swine Through Boar Movement and Legal Trade of Pigs and Pig Meat

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“… Software: R.  Release and upgrades: First release: September 2018.  More information: Taylor et al, 2018;Taylor et al, 2019a;Taylor et al, 2019b; 2019c.…”

Section: Compare: Collaborative Management Platform For Detection Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generic approaches for Risk Assessment of Infectious animal Disease introduction (G‐RAID)

Rrl

et al. 2019

EFSA Supporting Publications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The objective of the G-RAID project was the mutual exchange of knowledge between the consortium members on the development of generic risk assessment (RA) tools for animal disease incursion. Seven generic RA tools were compared considering objectives, inputs, algorithms and outputs. All tools were designed for rapid risk assessment and could assess the incursion risk for multiple diseases and pathways. Specific objectives of the tools, however, varied from immediate response to new disease events to prioritization of diseases and horizon scanning, resulting in different approaches to evaluate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. Cross-validation was explored as a method to validate the generic RA tools. All tools were applied to a case study for African swine fever (ASF) in which the incursion risk for the Netherlands and Finland was assessed for the 2017 situation and two hypothetical scenarios with ASF cases reported in Germany. The generic RA tools were parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. Diseaserelated parameters, however, could not be standardized because of the different levels of detail included in the model calculations. A comparison of absolute results of the tools was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool and compared. The risk assessment tools largely agreed upon the ranking of countries and scenarios based on relative risks and would thus indicate similar priorities for risk management As such, the cross-validation increased the credibility of results obtained with the generic RA tools. The cross-validation also contributed to the internal validation and further development of the tools. Results from the G-RAID project were disseminated to risk assessors and risk managers at a oneday symposium.

show abstract

“…The spread of ASF westwards across Europe has been thoroughly described and analyzed to support both local action and to adhere to international agreements on actions and trade (7). There have been several studies using simulation models to explore the relative benefits of a variety of management responses to the detection of ASF in wild boar [e.g., (8,9)]. All these studies assume a widespread distribution of wild boar across extensive regions of Europe, which are often densely forested and/or sparsely inhabited.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Spatial and Temporal Patterns of African Swine Fever in an Isolated Wild Boar Population to Support Decision-Making

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting all suids including wild boar. As the disease can damage commercial pig production and its circulation can threaten international trade, understanding the risks produced by free-living wild boar (as a wildlife reservoir) is important to ensure proportionate policies to exclude the disease, as well as an effective contingency response. The recent spread of the virus into Western Europe has produced concerns in many stakeholders including pig producers and national governments. Unlike in mainland Europe, where wild boar are widespread, in Britain, free-living populations have only recently re-established, and whilst these are still relatively small and isolated, they may provide a sufficient reservoir capable of sustaining disease and may thus present a continual source of infection risk to domestic pigs. This study focuses on one component of the risk produced by wild boar, specifically the distribution and persistence of virus in a landscape produced by the natural circulation of disease within wild boar. We used a spatial individual-based model run across a representation of a real landscape to explore the epidemiological consequences of an introduction of ASF into the Forest of Dean, currently hosting the largest population of wild boar in England. We explore various scenarios including variations in the prophylactic management of boar, as well as variations in reactive management (contingency response) following the detection of disease to evaluate their value in reducing this specific risk (presence of ASF virus of wild boar origin in the landscape). The abundance and distribution of wild boar is predicted to increase across our study extent over the next 20 years. Outbreaks of ASF are not predicted to be self-sustaining, with the median time to disease "burn-out" (no new infections) being 14 weeks. Carcass removal, as a tool in a package of reactive management, was of limited value in reducing the duration of outbreaks in this study. We suggest that useful predictions of some of the risks produced by ASF might be possible using only the distribution of the boar, rather than more difficult abundance or density measures.

show abstract

Predicting spread and effective control measures for African swine fever– should we blame the boars?

Cited by 8 publications

References 37 publications

The Risk of Infection by African Swine Fever Virus in European Swine Through Boar Movement and Legal Trade of Pigs and Pig Meat

The Risk of Infection by African Swine Fever Virus in European Swine Through Boar Movement and Legal Trade of Pigs and Pig Meat

Generic approaches for Risk Assessment of Infectious animal Disease introduction (G‐RAID)

Modelling Spatial and Temporal Patterns of African Swine Fever in an Isolated Wild Boar Population to Support Decision-Making

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About