Predicting Students at Risk in General Chemistry Using Pre-semester Assessments and Demographic Information

Abstract

Predicting student performance in the classroom is an important area of educational research owing to its potential for helping educators identify students who may have difficulty grasping the material in a course. The goal of this research was to develop a sensitive and specific pre-semester assessment for students enrolled in general chemistry for science majors that would identify students at risk for failing the course. The student pre-semester assessment (SPSA) predicted 40.8% of the students who went on to fail first-semester general chemistry. It was a better predictor of at-risk students than the Toledo exam (27.7%), SAT (16.8%), or predicted grade point index (PGI) (29.4%). The inclusion of demographic variables did little to increase the SPSA's predictive power, but math and chemistry background and age significantly increased the accuracy of predicting at-risk students when combined with either the SAT score or the PGI.

Preparedness for tertiary chemistry: multiple applications of the Chemistry Competence Test for diagnostic and prediction purposes

“…The prediction model had a sensitivity of 92% (accuracy of prediction of high risk candidates) and a specificity of 46% (accuracy of prediction of low risk). The model's overall prediction accuracy compares well with those reported in literature, and its sensitivity of 92% towards high risk students is unmatched (Wagner et al, 2002). The model's low specificity is acceptable, since it is not intended to be used for placement purposes; instead it will classify a larger number of marginal students for remedial support, which will be to their benefit.…”

“…Representational competence was assessed, i.e. the ability to interpret symbolic, macro and submicro representations (Johnstone, 1993;Ainsworth, 2006) and questions assessing basic mathematical skills were included for their well-known predictive ability for success in first-year general chemistry (McFate and Olmsted, 1999;Wagner et al, 2002). Paired questions (twotier methodology; Treagust, 1988) and pictorial representations were used in several cases.…”

Inaccuracy of self-evaluation as additional variable for prediction of students at risk of failing first-year chemistry

“…Wagner et al, 2002;Lewis and Lewis, 2007). Students' prior academic performances in mathematics and chemistry have a moderately strong correlation with performance in first-year chemistry (McFate and Olmsted, 1999;Evans, 2000;McKenzie and Schweitzer, 2001;Wagner et al, 2002;Thai et al, 2005). Similarly, the cognitive variable, logical reasoning ability is as successful for the prediction of success in tertiary chemistry as SAT scores (Bunce and Hutchinson, 1993).…”

“…Early identification of students at risk of failing allows timely intervention in an attempt to prevent failure. Well-researched factors such as mathematical ability, chemistry ability and demographic factors are often used as indicators of success or failure in tertiary chemistry (McFate and Olmsted, 1999;Legg et al, 2001;Wagner et al, 2002). The predictive capability of these factors is weakened by the unique social and psychological profile of each student, which cannot be measured directly (Angel and LaLonde, 1998;McFate andOlmsted, 1999, Tai et al, 2005).…”

“…This project aims to develop a regression model for the early prediction of risk of failing CMY 117, hence identifying students at risk within the first few weeks after lectures have commenced. Wagner et al, 2002;Lewis and Lewis, 2007). Students' prior academic performances in mathematics and chemistry have a moderately strong correlation with performance in first-year chemistry (McFate and Olmsted, 1999;Evans, 2000;McKenzie and Schweitzer, 2001;Wagner et al, 2002;Thai et al, 2005).…”