Predicting Success of Theatrical Movies: An Empirical Study

Litman, Barry R.

doi:10.1111/j.0022-3840.1983.1604_159.x

Cited by 326 publications

(294 citation statements)

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“…There remains debate in the literature regarding the impact of releasing films around holiday periods. For example, Brewer et al (2009) concluded that films released in the US during the summer and Thanksgiving periods could be expected to enjoy higher cinema revenues, while Litman (1983) indicated the financial benefits of releasing a film at Christmas. Consequently, a set of dummy variables, SEASON, was created to indicate films released during Christmas and the New Year (SPRING) and summer periods (SUMMER).…”

Section: Data and Methodology Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals

et al. 2017

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Grounded in signaling theory, this paper investigates the signals reflecting product quality, innovativeness, reputation and cultural background which influence film performance, that is, film survival (duration on cinema screen) and box office success, in China's changing institutional context. This market has grown substantially and still possesses potential for further development. However, China's unique institutional context presents challenges. By examining an expanded range of potential signals, two of which have not previously been examined in the literature, namely imported films and enhanced format film formats such as 3D and IMAX, we develop a conceptual framework and argue that signaling theory needs to be combined with institutional context. Similar to findings for film industries in other countries, we find quality and reputational signals including budget, star power, sequels, and online Asia Pac J Manag (2018) 35:63-95

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Section: Data and Methodology Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals

et al. 2017

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“…In the first place, the sampled films will often span non-equivalent and even non-overlapping periods of film history. Because of historical trends in the structure of the film industry, studies can obtain contradictory results even when the investigations are conducted by the same researcher using the same methods (e.g., Litman, 1983;Litman & Ahn, 1998;Litman & Kohl, 1989; see also Smith & Smith, 1986). Furthermore, the samples will differ on whether they include non-English-language films, documentaries, and animations-cinematic products that may have dissimilar success determinants (Simonton, 2007b).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…As a case in point, investigators have not reached consensus on how to determine whether or not a film features a movie star. Stars have been defined according to (a) whether they previously won a best-acting award (e.g., Delmestri, Montanari, & Usai, 2005), (b) their standing in surveys of frequent moviegoers (e.g., Canterbery & Marvasti, 2001), (c) the financial performance of their most recent films (e.g., Litman, 1983), (d) the total number of prior films in which they have performed (e.g., Chang & Ki, 2005), (e) subjective identification based on the researchers' "knowledge of films and movie stars" (Prag & Casavant, 1994, p. 220), and (f) industry-based determinations of the most "powerful," "bankable," "marquee value," or "A" and "Aϩ" list performers (e.g., Kindem, 1982). Yet there is absolutely no reason for believing that these rival indicators would correlate in the same manner with any criterion of cinematic success.…”

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confidence: 99%

Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry

Simonton

2009

Psychology and Marketing

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The author reviewed the empirical research on the factors underlying the success of feature-length narrative films. After specifying some methodological caveats, the review examined the three main criteria by which a film's success can be evaluated: critical evaluations (both early and post-theatrical run), financial performance (including first weekend and gross), and movie awards (including dramatic, visual, technical, and music categories). To what extent do these criteria represent distinct aesthetic and economic assessments? The review then turned to the various predictors of these success criteria. How is success connected with the film's production and distribution characteristics? To what extent do the predictors converge and diverge across alternative criteria? The article then closes with a discussion of some psychological issues raised by the reviewed findings.

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“…The success of already published movies is used to forecast the demand for new movies. Beginning with Litman (1983) several authors have tried to identify characteristics of a movie project or its producers that determine success (Prag & Casavant, 1994;Albert, 1998;Sedgwick & Pokorny, 1998;De Vany & Walls, 1999;Chang & Ki, 2005;HennigThurau, Houston et al, 2007). Most studies use a marketing perspective, and discuss how to capitalize a completed product.…”

Section: Controlling Risks In Movie Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Stars are used as an explanatory variable of box office performance (Simonet, 1980;Litman, 1983;Wallace et al, 1993;Sochay, 1994;Bagella & Becchetti, 1999). The results are somewhat mixed with huge differences concerning the explanatory power.…”

Section: Von Rimscha-managing Risk In Motion Picture Project Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Risk in Motion Picture Project Development

Rimscha

2009

Journal of Media Business Studies

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Movies are produced as unique prototypic media content to serve a highly uncertain demand. Film producers have to address the consumption risk while their projects are still in their development phase. This paper provides a literature review of key risk dimensions of movie projects and how to control them. The interviews conducted with movie producers have made it possible to compare the industry's risk control strategies. Content attributes, personnel, and funding emerge as key project resources and risk reducing elements both in theory and practice. Three distinct risk control strategies are identified and assigned to different resource configurations and market constraints of individual producers. Managing Risk in Motion Picture Project Development M. Bjørn von RimschaUniversity of Zurich ABSTRACT Movies are produced as unique prototypic media content to serve a highly uncertain demand. Film producers have to address the consumption risk while their projects are still in their development phase. This paper provides a literature review of key risk dimensions of movie projects and how to control them. The interviews conducted with movie producers have made it possible to compare the industry's risk control strategies. Content attributes, personnel, and funding emerge as key project resources and risk reducing elements both in theory and practice. Three distinct risk control strategies are identified and assigned to different resource configurations and market constraints of individual producers.KEY WORDS: project management, project selection, movie producer, industry structure, project resources This paper focuses on the development phase of movie production in which projects are selected rather than on movie distribution; it concentrates on producers developing a movie package rather than production companies building a portfolio of several movie projects.

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Predicting Success of Theatrical Movies: An Empirical Study

Cited by 326 publications

References 0 publications

Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals

Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals

Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry

Managing Risk in Motion Picture Project Development

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