Predicting suitable habitats of four range margin amphibians under climate and land-use changes in southwestern France

Préau, Clémentine; Isselin-Nondedeu, Françis; Sellier, Yann; Bertrand, Romain; Grandjean, Frédéric

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1381-z

Cited by 19 publications

(20 citation statements)

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“…In addition, the strong correlation between water and air temperature (Caissie, 2006;Trochet et al, 2019) makes it possible to make initial predictions that are reliable enough to anticipate the effects of future climate change on a protected species. Our projections might also underestimate the effect of human activities on crayfish distribution because our projections did not account for scenarios of potential land use changes (Préau et al, 2018;Titeux et al, 2016). Adding information on the presence of crayfish plague, which is carried by P. leniusculus (Filipova et al, 2013;Grandjean et al, 2017) and by other exotic crayfish as well (Gherardi, 2006;Svoboda et al, 2013), would also allow an improved recommendation of suitable locations for the conservation of A. pallipes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For models at the extent of mainland France (step 2), we collected observations of annual averages of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation between 2000 and 2014 and projections of these variables for the 2050s and 2100s under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (low-emissions scenario) and RCP 8.5 (high-emissions scenario) (see Préau et al, 2018 and Data S5). Using these data, we calculated for the current con- The spatial resolution of these variables was 1 × 1 km.…”

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…S1 in the supplementary material; or seeTrochet et al, 2019 for evidence of high-level correlation between air and water temperatures in France) and because scenarios projecting future freshwater temperatures are not available.For models at the extent of mainland France (step 2), we collected observations of annual averages of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation between 2000 and 2014 and projections of these variables for the 2050s and 2100s under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (low-emissions scenario) and RCP 8.5 (high-emissions scenario) (seePréau et al, 2018 and Data S5). Using these data, we calculated for the current conditions(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) and each climatic scenario: temperature seasonality (BIO4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6), precipitation of the driest month (BIO14), and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) variables within our study area, with the dismo package in R.3.3.2 (R Development Core Team, 2018).…”

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Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus

Préau

Nadeau

Sellier³

et al. 2019

Freshwater Biology

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1. The white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) is globally endangered due to the impacts of habitat modification and fragmentation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species, particularly the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). These pressures have caused the decline of A. pallipes populations in Europe, demonstrating the importance of predicting the species' potential distribution under current and future conditions. Focusing on the watercourses of mainland France, we aimed to identify suitable areas for A. pallipes to guide the conservation of current populations and future introduction actions or protection measures.2. We applied ecological niche modelling to model the potential distribution of both A. pallipes and P. leniusculus and identified locations suitable for A. pallipes only.We also assessed the potential distribution of the species under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low-warming and high-warming conditions.3. We found that A. pallipes and P. leniusculus exploit equivalent niches in France.Despite this, under current conditions, about 5% of the study area simultaneously records a high suitability for A. pallipes and a low suitability for P. leniusculus and is therefore of significant conservation interest. This percentage remains relatively stable under RCP 2.6 for 2050 and 2100, but decreases to 2% under RCP 8.5 for 2100. 4. Ecological niche modelling can supply crucial guidance for conservation actions aimed at protecting endangered species at a national scale by identifying sites most suitable for protection and sites where climate change and invasive species constitute a threat. K E Y W O R D S ecological niche modelling, habitat suitability, climate change, conservation, niche overlap | 305 PRÉAU et Al. S U PP O RTI N G I N FO R M ATI O N Additional supporting information may be found online in the Supporting Information section at the end of the article. How to cite this article: Préau C, Nadeau I, Sellier Y, et al. Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus. Freshwater Biology.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus

Préau

Nadeau

Sellier³

et al. 2019

Freshwater Biology

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“…Whereas climate change is a driver of range shift at global 12 and regional scales 13 , amphibian conservation at a local scale is closely related to the landscape mosaic, connectivity and degree of fragmentation 14,15 . Landscape connectivity is defined as "the degree to which the landscape facilitates or impedes movement among resource patches" 16 and is a key parameter that should be taken into account in conservation planning 17 .…”

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“…In this way, we projected the ensemble models to current climate conditions at a 1 km² grid, using a dataset of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation, initially calculated for France, and different from Worldclim data (ESM 2). We also projected our ensemble models with data depicting future conditions calculated for France (see ESM 2 for description of datasets calculated for France for current and future conditions 13,46 ). This allowed us to increase the spatial resolution of our results.…”

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Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory

Préau

Grandjean

Sellier³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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& francis isselin-nondedeu 3,6Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available. open Scientific RepoRtS | (2020) 10:3570 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60479-4www.nature.com/scientificreports www.nature.com/scientificreports/ connected by "edges", which refer to ecological corridors. Landscape graphs can be used to represent ecological networks and to analyse connectivity between habitats, with, for instance, the purpose of prioritizing sites for protection, improving connectivity, or assessing potential effect of an urban development project 19,20 . In this approach, the landscape between habitat patches is represented by a "resistance" or "cost" which estimates the relationships between environmental variables and movement of the considered species 21 . Resistance surfaces can be categorical, with a cost associated with land cover types 22 ; continuous, for example from an output of ENM, where resistance increases when habitat suitability decreases 23,24 ; or binary, assuming that the influence of the matrix on species movement is homogenous between patches 25 . Ziółkowska et al. 26 have compared the efficiency of such resistance surface representation on landscape connectivity assessment and they recommend using continuous resistance surface whenever possible. Using a habitat suitability map from ENM helps to overcome a lack of sufficient data. The use of ENM output is also a way to explore predictions of changes in high habitat su...

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How citizen science could improve species distribution models and their independent assessment

Matutini

Baudry

Pain

et al. 2021

Ecology and Evolution

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Predicting suitable habitats of four range margin amphibians under climate and land-use changes in southwestern France

Cited by 19 publications

References 62 publications

Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus

Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus

Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory

How citizen science could improve species distribution models and their independent assessment

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