Predicting support for flood mitigation based on flood insurance purchase behavior

Shao, Wanyun; Feng, Kairui; Lin, Ning

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab195a

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…This finding conforms to previous findings that a higher percentage of SFHA per county increases the probability of perceiving increasing flooding amounts (Shao et al 2017b) and propels coastal residents to buy flood insurance voluntarily (Shao et al 2017a). This finding reinforces the notion that the SFHA designated by FEMA and conveyed in the flood maps has become a powerful risk communication tool to the public (Shao et al 2019).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…People who live in a county with higher percentages of people living in the SFHA are more likely to estimate higher SLR in 2050. This finding is consistent with previous studies in the sense that the SFHA designated by FEMA is a powerful risk communication tool conveying high level of flood risk to coastal residents (Shao et al 2017b;Shao et al 2019). Furthermore, we interpret this result as follows.…”

Section: Comparison Between Public and Scientific Estimation Of Slr In 2050supporting

confidence: 93%

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Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region

2020

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Sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century poses fundamental risks to coastal residents. The US Gulf of Mexico Coast (Gulf Coast) is among the regions experiencing the most rapid relative SLR. Beyond its increasing exposure to SLR and related coastal flooding, the Gulf Coast is home to a large population and displays high social vulnerability. How the coastal population in this vulnerable region perceives the impending risks posed by SLR warrants further examination. Do coastal residents' perceptions of SLR conform to the scientific projections? We adopt an integrative approach based on a 2019 survey merged with contextual data including percentage of population living within the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) and social vulnerability at the county level, both of which are extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We find that public risk perceptions of sea level change are influenced by political predisposition, with Republicans being less likely than Democrats to expect SLR in the future. Moreover, SLR remains a temporally distant issue among coastal residents. We then directly compare public expectations and scientific estimations of SLR in five states of the US Gulf Coast region and find that coastal residents in states that have experienced faster SLR in the past are more optimistic about future SLR by underestimating its magnitude compared to those experiencing slower SLR. Moreover, we find that people likely conflate the severity with likelihood of SLR risk. The contextual force represented by percentage of population living within the SFHA designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) can significantly influence individuals' estimations of future SLR, with higher percentages leading to higher estimates. We suspect that the SFHA has become a powerful risk communication tool that influences coastal residents' judgments about future risk.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Comparison Between Public and Scientific Estimation Of Slr In 2050supporting

confidence: 93%

Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region

2020

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“…Similar findings were described for private households in Germany by Thieken et al (2006) or Thieken (2018). Furthermore, Shao et al (2019) apply Bayesian Network modeling to a survey dataset of households along the US Gulf Coast and find that the overall support for flood mitigation can be inferred from flood insurance purchase behavior. Therefore, Shao et al (2019) find little evidence for the presence of moral hazards.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 64%

“…Furthermore, Shao et al (2019) apply Bayesian Network modeling to a survey dataset of households along the US Gulf Coast and find that the overall support for flood mitigation can be inferred from flood insurance purchase behavior. Therefore, Shao et al (2019) find little evidence for the presence of moral hazards. Botzen et al (2019) also investigate the complementary between flood insurance and property-level risk reduction in New York City using a sample of over 1000 homeowners impacted by Hurricane Sandy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The presence of moral hazard regarding flood insurance and German private businesses

Hudson

Thieken

2022

Nat Hazards

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There is a movement towards the concepts of integrated flood risk management and governance. In these concepts, each stakeholder prone to flooding is tasked with actively limiting flood impacts. Currently, relatively more research has focused upon the adaptation of private households and not on private businesses operating in flood-prone areas. This paper offers an extension of this literature on business-level flood adaptation by exploring the potential presence of moral hazard. The analyses are based on survey data collected in the aftermath of six floods across Germany between 2002 and 2013 to provide a first indication of the presence of moral hazard in private businesses. Moral hazard is where increased insurance coverage results in policyholders preparing less, increasing the risk they face, a counterproductive outcome. We present an initial study of moral hazard occurring through three channels: the performance of emergency measures during a flood, changes in precautionary behavior employed before a given flood occurred, and changes in the intention to employ additional precautionary measures after a flood. We find, much like for private households, no strong indication that moral hazard is present regarding past adaptation. However, there is a potential avenue after 2005 for insurance coverage to lower businesses’ intentions to employ more adaptation measures after a flood. This has significant policy relevance such as opportunities for strengthening the link between insurance and risk reduction measures and boosting insurance coverage against flooding in general.

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“…Therefore, when faced with flood risk, if people are more positive about implementing flood prevention measures, the more likely they are to do so. Positive responses are those that prevent damage, such as purchasing insurance (Shao et al, 2019). Negative responses, on the other hand, include such things as denial of the threat, wishful thinking (Grothmann and Reusswig, 2006;Bubeck et al, 2013) and fatalism (Botzen et al, 2019).…”

Section: Integration Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China

Wang

Liu

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the context of global warming and China's disaster response patterns, it is critical to understand how to promote the effectiveness of household flood protection measures among the public. In this study, we developed a comprehensive theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to identify the main determinants that influence urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk. In addition to the fundamental factors in PMT, this framework also considered the influence of individual coping attitudes and social context. We selected urban residents in flood-prone areas of Henan Province as the study population as well as collected 857 valid questionnaires through an online survey. Firstly, the results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal of flood risk are effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. Secondly, negative risk-coping attitudes reduced people's intention to prepare. If people do not perceive preparedness actions as absolutely necessary, they will postpone them or shift their focus to public flood protection measures. In addition, analysis of affective pathways revealed that negative emotion (worry) was primarily influenced by perceptions of flood consequences and was not significantly related to perceptions of likelihood. The analysis of trust mechanisms showed that higher levels of trust in public flood protection reduced people's perceptions of flood risk, thereby hindering their intention to prepare for flood risk. Finally, we found that the positive influence of social norms on preparedness intentions makes it appropriate to focus on the power of social mobilization. The findings will provide theoretical references for government departments to design further policy measures to improve integrated flood risk management in China.

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Predicting support for flood mitigation based on flood insurance purchase behavior

Cited by 12 publications

References 46 publications

Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region

Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region

The presence of moral hazard regarding flood insurance and German private businesses

The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China

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