Predicting the 1998 Indian parliamentary election

Karandikar, Rajeeva L.; Payne, Clive; Yadav, Yogendra

doi:10.1016/s0261-3794(00)00042-1

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Over and above what has been presented in this section, many different types of election forecasting models and methodologies exist that are being used internationally [7,23,25,27,28,32,36]. Models are continuously being improved and they are becoming more and more sophisticated [34].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

2014 Election forecast - a post-election analysis

Ittmann

Holloway²,

Dudeni-Tlhone³

2017

ORiON

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General elections are held every five years in South Africa. During the 12 to 24 hour period after the close of the voting booths, the expected final results are of huge interest to the electorate and politicians. In the past, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has developed an election forecasting model in order to provide the media and political analysts with forecasts of the final results during this period of peak interest. In formulating this model, which forecasts the election results as the results from voting districts (VDs) become available, some assumptions had to be made. In particular, assumptions were made about the clustering of previous voting patterns as well as the order in which VD results are released. This election forecasting model had been used successfully for a number of elections in the past and in these previous elections, with around 5%-10% of the results available, the predictions produced by the model were very close to the final outcome, particularly for the ANC, being the largest party. For the 2014 national election, however, the predictions, with close to 50% of the voting district results known (equivalent to an estimated 40% of the total votes), were still not accurate and varied by more than 1% for both the ANC and the EFF. This paper outlines a post-election analysis to determine the reasons for these discrepancies and how they relate directly to the model assumptions. The aim is to highlight how practical realities can affect the assumptions and consequently their impact on the forecasted results. Reference is made to previous election forecasts and the 2014 post-election analysis is presented.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

2014 Election forecast - a post-election analysis

Ittmann

Holloway²,

Dudeni-Tlhone³

2017

ORiON

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“…The term election forecast can mean different things. Karandikar et al [2002] and Morton [1990] give a summary of different meanings, and when we speak of election forecasting in this paper, we mean exclusively what they termed a results-based forecast, a forecast based on partially counted votes without any exterior information like polls or surveys. 1 In the traditional forecasting process, after weeks of preparation, decisions have to be made in split seconds, possibly on live television.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolving accuracy: A genetic algorithm to improve election night forecasts

Hochreiter

Waldhauser²

2015

Applied Soft Computing

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In this paper, we apply genetic algorithms to the field of electoral studies. Forecasting election results is one of the most exciting and demanding tasks in the area of market research, especially due to the fact that decisions have to be made within seconds on live television. We show that the proposed method outperforms currently applied approaches and thereby provide an argument to tighten the intersection between computer science and social science, especially political science, further. We scrutinize the performance of our algorithm's runtime behavior to evaluate its applicability in the field. Numerical results with real data from a local election in the Austrian province of Styria from 2010 substantiate the applicability of the proposed approach.

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“…The South African elections present an ideal opportunity for analysts to carry out quantitative election night forecasts because of the excellent centralized and automated data collection during election night. Election results from the voting districts in which the counting process has been completed are immediately available at a central location, and the data available to forecasters are not limited to samples, as in some other countries (Morton, 1988;Karandikar et al 2002). However, what makes these elections difficult to predict early on is the fact that the early results are not representative of the final outcome because of the non-random order in which the incoming results are received.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, in that case one can use the results of previous elections as input into the analysis of the new elections, since the objective is to estimate the change in "share of vote" (Brown and Chappell, 1999). Other election night approaches, appropriate for their respective election systems, have also been developed for New Zealand (Morton, 1988), India (Karandikar et al, 2002) and Sweden (Thedeen, 1990).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for election night forecasting applied to the 2004 South African elections

Greben¹,

Elphinstone²,

Holloway³

2006

ORiON

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A novel model has been developed to predict elections on the basis of early results. The electorate is clustered according to their behaviour in previous elections. Early results in the new elections can then be translated into voter behaviour per cluster and extrapolated over the whole electorate. This procedure is of particular value in the South African elections which tend to be highly biased, as early results do not give a proper representation of the overall electorate. In this paper we explain the methodology used to obtain the predictions. In particular, we look at the different clustering techniques that can be used, such as kmeans, fuzzy clustering and k-means in combination with discriminant analysis. We assess the performances of the different approaches by comparing their convergence towards the final results.

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Predicting the 1998 Indian parliamentary election

Cited by 5 publications

References 3 publications

2014 Election forecast - a post-election analysis

2014 Election forecast - a post-election analysis

Evolving accuracy: A genetic algorithm to improve election night forecasts

A model for election night forecasting applied to the 2004 South African elections

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