Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches

Abstract

Background The ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus are two of the most important vectors in Europe. Climate niche modelling has been used in many studies to attempt to explain their distribution and to predict changes under a range of climate change scenarios. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of different climate niche modelling approaches to explain the known distribution of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus in Europe. Methods A series of climate niche models, using different combinations of input data, were constructed and assessed. Species occurrence records obtained from systematic literature searches and Global Biodiversity Information Facility data were thinned to different degrees to remove sampling spatial bias. Four sources of climate data were used: bioclimatic variables, WorldClim, TerraClimate and MODIS satellite-derived data. Eight different model training extents were examined and three modelling frameworks were used: maximum entropy, generalised additive models and random forest models. The results were validated through internal cross-validation, comparison with an external independent dataset and expert opinion. Results The performance metrics and predictive ability of the different modelling approaches varied significantly within and between each species. Different combinations were better able to define the distribution of each of the two species. However, no single approach was considered fully able to capture the known distribution of the species. When considering the mean of the performance metrics of internal and external validation, 24 models for I. ricinus and 11 models for D. reticulatus of the 96 constructed were considered adequate according to the following criteria: area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve > 0.7; true skill statistic > 0.4; Miller’s calibration slope 0.25 above or below 1; Boyce index > 0.9; omission rate < 0.15. Conclusions This comprehensive analysis suggests that there is no single ‘best practice’ climate modelling approach to account for the distribution of these tick species. This has important implications for attempts to predict climate-mediated impacts on future tick distribution. It is suggested here that climate variables alone are not sufficient; habitat type, host availability and anthropogenic impacts, not included in current modelling approaches, could contribute to determining tick presence or absence at the local or regional scale. Graphical abstract

Vector-borne diseases imported to Poland between 2021 and 2023

“…These factors may influence the emergence of biological vectors of infectious and parasitic diseases in areas previously free from them. This is confirmed by, for example, changes in the geographical distribution of important tick vectors, such as Ixodes ricinus ( 25 , 36 ).…”

Species distribution modeling of the castor bean tick,Ixodes ricinus(Linnaeus, 1758), under current and future climates, with a special focus on Ukraine and Latvia

“…Faced with limited data for Ukraine, we built species distribution models using European and adjacent occurrences. Presence data was retrieved from online public databases, which were accessed using the R package 'rgbif', an interface to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility [29,30] (GBIF.org, 2022), supplemented from the literature [31][32][33][34], including Ukrainian and Latvian sources [35][36][37].…”

Molecular identification and morphological variations of Amblyomma lepidum imported to Egypt, with notes about its potential distribution under climate change

“…The ecological niche modeling technique was used to understand the distribution pattern of disease vectors (Peterson et al 2004 ). In recent years, several studies have anticipated the current and future potential distribution of tick vectors of medical and veterinary importance belonging to different genera (Boorgula et al 2020 ; Aguilar-Domínguez et al 2021a ; Polo et al 2021 ; Gillingham et al 2023 ; Noll et al 2023 ). However, no study has predicted the potential distribution of A. lepidum in its geographical range.…”