Predicting the duration of surgery and procedures in a veterinary referral center

Abstract

Objective To evaluate the ability of veterinary personnel to predict the duration of surgery and associated procedures in a referral center. Study design Prospective observational study. Sample population Experienced surgeons (ES; n = 2, board certified for 10+ years), inexperienced surgeons (IS; n = 2, residency completed, not board certified), anesthesia animal health technicians (AAHT; n = 3) and surgery animal health technicians (SAHT; n = 2). Methods Surgeons and technicians predicted surgery duration (skin incision to final stitch/staple) and total procedure duration (TPD; from induction of anesthesia to extubation). Predictions were compared to actual durations with Bland–Altman plots to assess agreement (accuracy) as indicated by bias (mean of observed differences) and limits of agreement (LOA; bias ±1.96 SD). Results All groups underestimated TPD. Experienced surgeons predicted their own TPD more accurately (bias −20.1 ± 30.4 minutes [±SD]) and more consistently (narrower LOA) than IS for their own TPD (−40.1 ± 41.0 minutes). Experienced surgeon TPD predictions by AAHT were more accurate than those by ES (bias −16.0 ± 28.9 minutes, LOA 5% narrower). Inexperienced surgeon TPD predictions by AAHT were less consistent (wider LOA) than those by IS. Own surgery duration predictions by surgeons were similar in magnitude (ES surgery duration [ESSD] 8.3 ± 18.3, IS surgery duration [ISSD] surgery duration −7.9 ± 27.2 minutes), with greater consistency by ES (LOA 30% narrower). Anesthesia animal health technician predictions were similar to those of surgeons (ESSD 3.0 ± 19.3, ISSD −9.0 ± 28.7 minutes). Surgery animal health technician predictions were similar to those of AAHT for ESSD but were less accurate for ISSD. Conclusion Surgery duration was more accurately predicted than TPD, which was most accurately predicted by anesthesia technicians. Clinical significance Surgical procedure planning should involve personnel best able to predict total procedure durations; in this case, anesthesia technicians. Accurate planning will promote efficient operating room and personnel use.