Predicting the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom Using Time-Series Mining

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economic activity to a near standstill as many countries imposed very strict restrictions on movement to halt the spread of the virus. This study aims at assessing the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK) using artificial intelligence (AI) and data from previous economic crises to predict future economic impacts. The macroeconomic indicators, gross domestic products (GDP) and GDP growth, and data on the performance of three primary industries in the UK (the construction, production and service industries) were analysed using a comparison with the pattern of previous economic crises. In this research, we experimented with the effectiveness of both continuous and categorical time-series forecasting on predicting future values to generate more accurate and useful results in the economic domain. Continuous value predictions indicate that GDP growth in 2021 will remain steady, but at around −8.5% contraction, compared to the baseline figures before the pandemic. Further, the categorical predictions indicate that there will be no quarterly drop in GDP following the first quarter of 2021. This study provided evidence-based data on the economic effects of COVID-19 that can be used to plan necessary recovery procedures and to take appropriate actions to support the economy.

Travel-Business Stagnation and SME Business Turbulence in the Tourism Sector in the Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Figure 9B can be explained by: (1) the performance of the tourism travel businesses and SMEs show 28.29% in the supportive, 17.71% in the enough-supportive, and 54% in the not-supportive categories. (2) The quantity and quality of the product shows 28.28% in the supportive, 18.57% in the enough-supportive, and 53.15% in the not-supportive categories. (3) The fulfillment of business targets shows 14.86% in the supportive, 13.43% in the enough-supportive and 71.71% in the not-supportive categories.…”

“…These eight factors require government-policy support through a process of mentoring and business development. Furthermore, five strategic steps are needed to support the sustainability of the tourism travel businesses and SMEs, including: (1) producing products according to consumer needs; (2) pricing in terms of consumer demand; (3) the location of the business being easy to access by everyone and close to the crowd; (4) promotion of products sold being clear to the target market and consumers; and (5) the quality of supporting human resources (HR). These five principles become the basis of and reference for the development and sustainability of economic business.…”

“…The COVID-19 pandemic in general has an impact on the global tourism industry and threatens the recovery of destinations in developing countries [1]. The pandemic has brought economic activity to a near standstill as many countries have imposed very strict restrictions on movement in order to halt the spread of the virus [2]. Furthermore, the pandemic and the resulting economic and social constraints have significantly affected consumer and business confidence [3,4].…”

“…This means that difficulties in developing SMEs have led to weak employment and economic growth [74]. (2) The productivity of economic enterprises has stagnated due to restrictions on community activities, and (3) revenue receipts have experienced a sharp decline affecting the dynamics of economic businesses and causing a reduction in labor and product marketing. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on the economy and human life, especially for vulnerable, low-income communities, as well as on the productivity of economic enterprises [75,76].…”

Artificial Intelligence for Forecasting the Prevalence of COVID-19 Pandemic: An Overview

“…It may also help to define the precautions and restrictions for citizens to reduce disease transmission. These restrictions should be carefully investigated to minimize their impact on different economic outcomes, such as poverty and unemployment [ 4 ]. Moreover, forecasting of COVID-19 prevalence may help in establishing vaccine and therapy plans and selecting hot spots that that should receive more attention from policy makers.…”